End of week review and a macro $UNI chart - 5 Oct
Dear diary,
Have been back in crypto for about a month after a long time away doing real life stuff.
In so many ways I am a better trader than I was before. More aware of the hype and the manipulation, less willing to succumb to the roar of the crowd.
I still have a sense for decent projects to get into, was relatively early on $CORE for example as I liked the fair launch. I snapped that up before 3K mark and can see that working out well in the mid term.
But I need to have the highest possible standards to win this game. Higher than anyone else could expect. So I am gonna be brutal in my assessment. It is the only way to become uncommon.
What still trips me up is that by nature I am a bull and an optimist. I see the potential in things, I WANT them to go up, I want dreams to come true.
The market does not reward sentimental or biased approaches like this. It is so very important to trade what is in front of you, the cold reality of the chart, rather than relying on hope, or buying into Twitter narratives.
With $UNI I still think this has a major pump in store in the future due simply to being the token released and devised by Uniswap Protocol. I can't see them simply letting it tail off without having some relevance to V3.
From what I can see its going through a savage first cycle and likely near the end of that cycle now. I am a little amazed by the capitulation candle that blasted through "ultimate reload" on this chart. A reminder that the market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
The point is that at one point I considered setting up my trade so that if 4.8 was lost, I wpuld stay in tether until a reversal in trend. I didn't take that trade, I let it run and now have to twiddle my thumbs through drawdown.
This is a long term position, so I am cool with the cycle playing out, but it does make me worry I am not quite at that ice blooded level that you need for these markets. Protecting capital and trading what you see on the charts instead of being led by narratives or emotions.
I am almost there but you need to actually EXECUTE. There is a disconnect between my analysis and my execution, and it comes from 3 things:
1. Lack of responsibility, actually owning the trade instead of leaving it up to the mystery of the market
2. FOMO. Instead of the much more credible fear of losing capital through drawdown.
3. Overinvolvement. I do think if you look at this stuff daily, get too into it, you can lose perspective.
So here is how I will address these issues.
1. Set up iron clad rules for both trades and investments. Rules for when I get into both, when I buy and sell, execute this robotically.
2. Make protecting capital the foremost goal above and beyond making profits. Survival really is often the key in this space.
3. Disengage. This stuff should not take up a huge amount of time, capital or attention. I was reading The Disciplined Trader by Douglas today and it essentially says that you must practice disconnection as a strategic edge.
For that reason I am taking a 4 week hiatus from the markets to let them work themselves out. My next post will be on Nov 5. I think coming at it fresh will help my analysis, to see the bigger picture.
Yours as ever,
Ponzi Master
Have been back in crypto for about a month after a long time away doing real life stuff.
In so many ways I am a better trader than I was before. More aware of the hype and the manipulation, less willing to succumb to the roar of the crowd.
I still have a sense for decent projects to get into, was relatively early on $CORE for example as I liked the fair launch. I snapped that up before 3K mark and can see that working out well in the mid term.
But I need to have the highest possible standards to win this game. Higher than anyone else could expect. So I am gonna be brutal in my assessment. It is the only way to become uncommon.
What still trips me up is that by nature I am a bull and an optimist. I see the potential in things, I WANT them to go up, I want dreams to come true.
The market does not reward sentimental or biased approaches like this. It is so very important to trade what is in front of you, the cold reality of the chart, rather than relying on hope, or buying into Twitter narratives.
With $UNI I still think this has a major pump in store in the future due simply to being the token released and devised by Uniswap Protocol. I can't see them simply letting it tail off without having some relevance to V3.
From what I can see its going through a savage first cycle and likely near the end of that cycle now. I am a little amazed by the capitulation candle that blasted through "ultimate reload" on this chart. A reminder that the market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
The point is that at one point I considered setting up my trade so that if 4.8 was lost, I wpuld stay in tether until a reversal in trend. I didn't take that trade, I let it run and now have to twiddle my thumbs through drawdown.
This is a long term position, so I am cool with the cycle playing out, but it does make me worry I am not quite at that ice blooded level that you need for these markets. Protecting capital and trading what you see on the charts instead of being led by narratives or emotions.
I am almost there but you need to actually EXECUTE. There is a disconnect between my analysis and my execution, and it comes from 3 things:
1. Lack of responsibility, actually owning the trade instead of leaving it up to the mystery of the market
2. FOMO. Instead of the much more credible fear of losing capital through drawdown.
3. Overinvolvement. I do think if you look at this stuff daily, get too into it, you can lose perspective.
So here is how I will address these issues.
1. Set up iron clad rules for both trades and investments. Rules for when I get into both, when I buy and sell, execute this robotically.
2. Make protecting capital the foremost goal above and beyond making profits. Survival really is often the key in this space.
3. Disengage. This stuff should not take up a huge amount of time, capital or attention. I was reading The Disciplined Trader by Douglas today and it essentially says that you must practice disconnection as a strategic edge.
For that reason I am taking a 4 week hiatus from the markets to let them work themselves out. My next post will be on Nov 5. I think coming at it fresh will help my analysis, to see the bigger picture.
Yours as ever,
Ponzi Master
Trade closed manually:
Just to be clear to everyone - I exited my UNI position.
One rule of trading I have is "If you wouldn't get into it again knowing what you know now, cut it and move on".
I'm sure UNI is going to have another run - but the fact it went below my 3rd buy zone and is now testing that as resistance, means I was WRONG.
And there's no shame in that. You must learn to be OK with being wrong and not attaching guilt and pain to misreading the market. It is the only way to get out of the fog of war and think clearly.
One rule of trading I have is "If you wouldn't get into it again knowing what you know now, cut it and move on".
I'm sure UNI is going to have another run - but the fact it went below my 3rd buy zone and is now testing that as resistance, means I was WRONG.
And there's no shame in that. You must learn to be OK with being wrong and not attaching guilt and pain to misreading the market. It is the only way to get out of the fog of war and think clearly.
