I think we've all seen articles saying that it's time for a real correction in the markets - the chart above shows my thoughts of a correction from the recent high of 17382 to the 15700 area - this would be 1682-ish points which is a 9.67% correction.
The DOW is following a nice daily channel down at the moment with only a couple of intra-day excursions out, but its closed within since the 17th of September. First stop that I see is to the purple daily trend-line (around 16560 which is also the 200EMA level) which starts just over a year ago - the next stop is strong support area (16330-16260) which has held since the end of April this year. If it breaks this area then the next possible stop I see is the strong Weekly trend-line (Blue) from all the way back in 2009. Of course there are many other levels of support between the two major trend-lines but as you can see the general idea is DOWN.
Just to add that the fundamentals behind my idea is that with the end of QE (we had major corrections post QE1 & QE2), and the potential for interest rate hikes especially here in the EU this will provide the downward momentum. And the current strength of the USD also isn't helping with industry and exports - all adding to argument for a move down.....
IF and that's a BIG IF the Weekly trend-line area breaks that then its anyone's guess..... The time-frames shown are of course absolute guestimates - but any thoughts or comments would be great help and of much interest. I'm very much a beginner, so any advice or pointers from the more experienced traders would be fantastic! Cheers!
The DOW is following a nice daily channel down at the moment with only a couple of intra-day excursions out, but its closed within since the 17th of September. First stop that I see is to the purple daily trend-line (around 16560 which is also the 200EMA level) which starts just over a year ago - the next stop is strong support area (16330-16260) which has held since the end of April this year. If it breaks this area then the next possible stop I see is the strong Weekly trend-line (Blue) from all the way back in 2009. Of course there are many other levels of support between the two major trend-lines but as you can see the general idea is DOWN.
Just to add that the fundamentals behind my idea is that with the end of QE (we had major corrections post QE1 & QE2), and the potential for interest rate hikes especially here in the EU this will provide the downward momentum. And the current strength of the USD also isn't helping with industry and exports - all adding to argument for a move down.....
IF and that's a BIG IF the Weekly trend-line area breaks that then its anyone's guess..... The time-frames shown are of course absolute guestimates - but any thoughts or comments would be great help and of much interest. I'm very much a beginner, so any advice or pointers from the more experienced traders would be fantastic! Cheers!