FxWirePro
Short

BRL vs USD on 8 month's highs after descending triangles' base

FX_IDC:USDBRL   US DOLLAR / BRAZILIAN REAL
64 2 5
BRL             against USD hits at 3.4850 to flash a fresh 8 months highs.

USDBRL             forms a descending triangle pattern which is bearish continuation trend.

After the pair ( USDBRL             ) breaking below the baseline of descending triangle it has been losing upswings momentum completely.

Leading oscillators are also converging to these dips signal to momentum in selling pressures.

Current prices have slid way below DMAs, while MACD's bearish crossover indicates ongoing downtrend to prolong further.

The occurrence of "shooting star" at 4.0093 and "hanging man" pattern at 4.0166 on monthly charts signal more bearish potential as leading & lagging indicators substantiate the bearish pressures.

Contemplating above technical observations, we could foresee more dips in the days to come, the best way to tackle this trend is to remain short in mid-month futures at every rallies for targets upto 3.1980 levels.
mocem PRO
7 months ago
Dear Sir; time to time I am comparing USDBRL vs. USDTRY. Generally their trend is similar. But nowadays I notice that this correlation is a little bit broken.
With your analysis in mind, I am confused now. According to my analysis about USDTRY, it has a potential for a strong up move. But your analysis is very clear and indicates a deeper move for USDBRL.
If possible, I would be very happy to hear your comments from my point of view, which depends on these two item's comparisation.
In the meantime, I would like to thank you for your clear studies which you share with us.
Have a nice trading day.
Best Regards,
Reply
FxWirePro mocem
7 months ago
Well, indeed the technical depiction of these pairs (USDBRL & USDTRY) resembles the correlation but it doesn't exactly mean that their foreign trade is inter-related, No doubt, the EU is Brazilian biggest trading partner, accounting for 19.5% of its total trade, and Brazil is the EU’s tenth trading partner, accounting for 2.0% of total EU trade (2014). This shows the strength of our bilateral trade relationship.

Most importantly, if you plot monthly charts of both these pairs, I hope you may probably reconsider your upward sentiments on USDTRY, for me it's bearish as well.
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