Short USDBRL, some economic improvement with political change?
Trade logic on Right wing move towards government after year of lefties in power.
Some economic reforms are expected, and Capital is eyeing transfer to Brazil as a consequence.
Technically, a head and shoulders pattern just finished forming, (can be seen clearly on daily chart), with any move downward likely to be quick,
TP just above 3.2 is suggested based on previous support and fiobonacci retracement from previous multi year lows and highs.
A second TP in the range of 2.4 to 2.5 is possible but likely to take some long time (at least 6 months and very possible more than a year from now); reasoning is to look at weekly chart, given the head and shoulders we hoped for finishes, a double top chart will form and price may head to next fib. retracement and previous resistance (between 2008 and 2014) that will act as support.
For now focus on first target
Some economic reforms are expected, and Capital is eyeing transfer to Brazil as a consequence.
Technically, a head and shoulders pattern just finished forming, (can be seen clearly on daily chart), with any move downward likely to be quick,
TP just above 3.2 is suggested based on previous support and fiobonacci retracement from previous multi year lows and highs.
A second TP in the range of 2.4 to 2.5 is possible but likely to take some long time (at least 6 months and very possible more than a year from now); reasoning is to look at weekly chart, given the head and shoulders we hoped for finishes, a double top chart will form and price may head to next fib. retracement and previous resistance (between 2008 and 2014) that will act as support.
For now focus on first target
Trade closed manually:
Manually close at 3.84, 2.6% loss
Will wait for the turkish to melt down, which will drag other EM's
then to re-enter this trade in a better point
Will wait for the turkish to melt down, which will drag other EM's
then to re-enter this trade in a better point
