FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
200 2 2
Weekly view – After a little tug-of-war around the weekly swap level 1.2439, the sellers, at this point in time, appear to be taking control. Overall though, our long-term bias on this pair is long, and it will only be once we see a break below the weekly swap area at 1.2034-1.1870 would our present bias likely shift.

Daily view: The daily timeframe shows that active buying was seen from the daily demand barrier at 1.2167-1.2255 during yesterday’s session, which just missed connecting with the daily swap level seen at 1.2366.

4hr view: From this angle, we can see that the 4hr Harmonic Bat reversal zone seen in green at 1.2246-1.2206 (located deep within the aforementioned daily demand area) has seen a relatively nice reaction, consequently breaking above the 4hr supply area at 1.2351-1.2324. Furthermore, the Fibonacci retracement 0.382 of A-D has also been hit, thus as per Scott Carney’s trade management rules, the stop should ideally be at breakeven now for anyone that managed to enter long. The next and most likely final target, should price continue to rally that is, will be around the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of swing A-D if following Carney’s rules. However, you may want to keep 4hr structure in mind here and look at liquidating your position a little earlier than 0.618 at the 4hr swap area coming in at 1.2366-1.2394, which, if you look back to the daily chart , you’ll see it lines up perfectly with the daily swap level 1.2366.

At the time of writing, however, price recently broke below 1.2300. If the sellers remain strong below this hurdle today, it is likely we’re going to see a drive back into the aforementioned 4hr Harmonic Bat reversal zone. If this does occur, our team would, once again, watch for price action confirmation on the lower timeframes to enter long. Nevertheless, for anyone considering doing the same, be prepared for a fakeout below into 4hr demand seen at 1.2171-1.2191 (positioned deep within the aforementioned daily demand area).

Levels to watch/ live orders:

• Buys: 1.2246-1.2206 (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).

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I agree with the BUY for long term, support should be at around 1.224 because there is an important ascending support line there.
Could a bounce up to reach 1.237.
Then back down to sit again on the same support line where it should bounce up.
Basically, I see a futur triangle formation then in-between 1.23 and 1.25, narrowing smaller day after day. Until prices breaks the triangle's top line and we'll be back up.

But this will all depend on the price of crude oil. (CAD being the third larger exporter. Oil price has a direct effect on the CAD.)
ICmarkets ascension
Hi ascension,

Thanks for the analysis, much appreciated :)

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