Daily view: The shows that active buying was seen from the daily demand barrier at 1.2167-1.2255 during yesterday’s session, which just missed connecting with the daily swap level seen at 1.2366.
4hr view: From this angle, we can see that the 4hr Bat reversal zone seen in green at 1.2246-1.2206 (located deep within the aforementioned daily demand area) has seen a relatively nice reaction, consequently breaking above the 4hr supply area at 1.2351-1.2324. Furthermore, the 0.382 of A-D has also been hit, thus as per Scott Carney’s trade management rules, the stop should ideally be at breakeven now for anyone that managed to enter long. The next and most likely final target, should price continue to rally that is, will be around the 0.618 of swing A-D if following Carney’s rules. However, you may want to keep 4hr structure in mind here and look at liquidating your position a little earlier than 0.618 at the 4hr swap area coming in at 1.2366-1.2394, which, if you look back to the , you’ll see it lines up perfectly with the daily swap level 1.2366.
At the time of writing, however, price recently broke below 1.2300. If the sellers remain strong below this hurdle today, it is likely we’re going to see a drive back into the aforementioned 4hr Bat reversal zone. If this does occur, our team would, once again, watch for price action confirmation on the lower timeframes to enter long. Nevertheless, for anyone considering doing the same, be prepared for a fakeout below into 4hr demand seen at 1.2171-1.2191 (positioned deep within the aforementioned daily demand area).
Levels to watch/ live orders:
• Buys: 1.2246-1.2206 (Stop loss: dependent on where one confirms this area).
• Sells: Flat (Stop loss: N/A).
Could a bounce up to reach 1.237.
Then back down to sit again on the same support line where it should bounce up.
Basically, I see a futur triangle formation then in-between 1.23 and 1.25, narrowing smaller day after day. Until prices breaks the triangle's top line and we'll be back up.
But this will all depend on the price of crude oil. (CAD being the third larger exporter. Oil price has a direct effect on the CAD.)