sandpipertrader
Short

Possible Short on Price Action and Pin Bar

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
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I have been watching this for awhile and figured that if I got a Sell Pin Bar at the resistance level (1) I would go ahead and take it, There are a few issues I have so I'm still waiting to see what the next candle does. First issue, (3) is not really an impulsive move down but it was followed by a pretty good corrective move (4) but it continued on to take out two minor swing highs, so the question is was it a correction or shift in trend? Starting on Wed. the Greek issue was really messing up charts and also there was talk of a "fat finger" trade on CAD that really impacted things (including stopping me out of of a long CAD/JPY trade. Second issue I am having with this trade is that a couple of traders that I really respect are either looking to go long or already long, I know that shouldn't play into any of this but unfortunately it does and going against someone that is running 78% win/loss puts the odds against me. The candle following the PB candle did exactly as expected and I would have gone short there at 50% Fib retracement of PB except it was Friday and previous candles were during all the Greek/Euro stuff (5), so are making the PB a little suspect and also the whole correction of (4). Part of this will depend on oil prices recovering a bit. Also would feel a little better about the trade if the lower indicator (Invlinreg2) had gone a little higher before turning down. The one hour and 15 Min charts also confirming a possible short also. I will watch next candle closely and decide whether to jump in or not.
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