Wermelgion

IF A MODEL BUY IF B MODEL SELL

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
Good afternoon dear colleagues, investors and traders.
Your attention is an analytical view of the currency pair #USDCAD
"Oil and all all all"
A couple of the situation continues to operate in oil             , which feels on top, on the eve of the meeting of oil             producing countries on March 20. However, fundamentally, freezing producers do not lead to nothing, as the country in January have increased production to maximum performance. In reality, the situation could be corrected if not for the following factors:
Oil             storage # in US and worldwide Lastly, there are full, the country - Importers advantage of the situation with cheap oil             .
• The main importer of oil             is the # China, however, the current macro - economic indicators show China and the possible future Asian crisis of serious problems.
(China will not be able to move from one economic model to another without stopping. This is equivalent to that racing Balide needed a pit stop and the mechanics wanted to go to change the wheels.)
• Prices # oil             reacted growth in including the statements # Mario # Draghi and # Hirihiko # Kuroda, although the desire to Representative # Eurozone and # Japan to weaken the national currency, may not directly or indirectly affect the demand for oil             , on the contrary, making the weaker its currency, they make it more expensive for the US dollar             , and the cost of a barrel is estimated in US dollars. A critical factor will be the question: "Will it weaken the euro             and the yen?"
• Monetary policy # Fed. How would someone not trying to condemn Janet # # Yelen, its mandate Fed performs absolutely correct. Recall that the Fed's mandate to take care of the growth of employment and to keep or push inflation to 2% figure. With the first all is clear, and the unemployment rate in the US is close to the level of full employment.
And it follows from the first second factor, wage growth must lead to an increase in consumption and consequently to an increase in inflation #. Therefore, the Fed will continue to gradually raise rates in preparation for the normal growth of prices and reducing the bubble in the stock market .
We remain bulls on the dollar for oil             - producing countries, but allow change their opinion if certain risks materialize. Our bullish stance is justified by the difference of monetary - credit policy of the Fed and the PPM, technical analysis and fundamental factors.
# # Technical analysis: The pair is moving in a downward channel 4chasovom, breaking the mark of 1.3500 the pair came out of the daily rising channel, but it continues to move in the upward channel weekly. Stressing that the long-term trend (Model A) remains in force. Important levels are 2 areas:
uplink line: 1.3210 - 1.3300
200 Day SMA: 1.3278
300 day SMA: 1.2975
In order to have the couple went further under model A, it is necessary to gain a foothold and to consolidate either above or under these levels.
If the pair breaks through these levels and consolidate below them, we are waiting for the downward movement in this currency pair in the medium term (Model B) In this case, we expect the following objectives:
1.2630
1.2000
iWM             levels (W1 / M1             ) We introduce a new tool: monthly goals for math levels to the existing levels of the week: will be given on Monday (2:00)
CFTC: will be given on Monday (2:00)
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