FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
81 3 4
Here is my interpretation. After the wedge formation detected last week at the peak of the market, we had a correction. The previous bullish burst was quite strong, which makes me believe that the major down-trend is over. If I am correct, it would mean that this strong move was the first wave of a larger wave to come. This will bring us to the best of the waves, namely the third wave. If ever happens it will be a very profitable strong move up to 1.33 levels and possibly higher. As we all know that Canadian dollar             is highly correlated with Oil             , thus I would highly recommend to check out Oil             while trading USDCAD             . The Brent Oil             did lately bounced back from the trend channel lower boundary and heading towards the upper trend boundry (I will publish an Oil             analysis later). Currently, following technicals can be picked up on hourly chart shown above.
1-Correction seems to have completed 1-5 wave (count not very clear though)
2-Price at Fibonacci level 0.618 from the peak
3-Price fell back to the bear trend channel's upper trend line , which is important
4-Price on 200 bars Moving Average
5- Price at important weekly Support zone (cyan dotted line on chart).

So there is a possible bounce back possibility here. When shall we enter? I would suggest the following:
a-Wait until Brent Oil             touches it's trend channel upper line
b-Wait for a strong thrust in the UP direction from current correction. (Check out Time frames of 15min, 1hr, 4 hrs for that) .
c-Better to wait that current correction's trend channel is violated in the up direction.

To emphasize again, wait until Oil             makes a definite turn
AlMak
8 months ago
Head and Shoulders in 4H?
Reply
TRDVMA AlMak
8 months ago
Corrective structures can often be confused as H&S formations. It is quite normal to see H&S like patterns during corrections, due to the very nature and shape of the corrections. What makes a H&S distinguish from similar looking patterns is the fact that the real ones ONLY occur at trend turning points. One rudimentary rule I follow is this. Measure the size of an H&S formation from the beginning of the left shoulder (in bars) and then count the bars since the beginning of the trend all the way to the first bar of the H&S (Where the left shoulder starts). If the size of the trend is not multiples of the H&S, you can disregard it. Actually you don't need to count the bars, because a visual inspection will tell you.Basically, an H&S can NOT be the same or larger size then the underlying trend. I gave the count example just to describe why. Regards.
Reply
AlMak TRDVMA
8 months ago
Thank you very much for your explanation.
Reply
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