Here is my interpretation. After the wedge
formation detected last week at the peak of the market, we had a correction. The previous bullish
burst was quite strong, which makes me believe that the major down-trend is over. If I am correct, it would mean that this strong move was the first wave of a larger wave to come. This will bring us to the best of the waves, namely the third wave. If ever happens it will be a very profitable strong move up to 1.33 levels and possibly higher. As we all know that Canadian dollar
is highly correlated with Oil
, thus I would highly recommend to check out Oil
while trading USDCAD
. The Brent Oil
did lately bounced back from the trend channel lower boundary and heading towards the upper trend boundry (I will publish an Oil
analysis later). Currently, following technicals can be picked up on hourly chart shown above.
1-Correction seems to have completed 1-5 wave (count not very clear though)
2-Price at Fibonacci level 0.618 from the peak
3-Price fell back to the bear
trend channel's upper trend line
, which is important
4-Price on 200 bars Moving Average
5- Price at important weekly Support zone
(cyan dotted line on chart).
So there is a possible bounce back possibility here. When shall we enter? I would suggest the following:
a-Wait until Brent Oil
touches it's trend channel upper line
b-Wait for a strong thrust in the UP direction from current correction. (Check out Time frames of 15min, 1hr, 4 hrs for that) .
c-Better to wait that current correction's trend channel is violated in the up direction.
To emphasize again, wait until Oil
makes a definite turn