For the USDCAD we are in a state where the technicals are not that clear. However for this pair there is 2 other important charts we can depend on. One is the Oil (Brent or US) and the second one is the USD Index. The charts below show the current state of the USD Index and the Brent Oil . The points are:
1- Oil shows weakness and there is more likeliness that it will go down rather than up (I can not say how much). There is an obvious formation and the upper trend channel is reached. On top there is a sign for some sort of breakout.
2- USD Index is highly overbought and bordering a significant . It will require a major event to break out this heavy resistance. Also there is a formation indicating weakness and overbought indicators are out of scale.
Now all this means that there is a high uncertaintiy regarding USDCAD even though I can see quite a bit of enthusiams among traders to jump long. Again bear in mind that the USD CAD is bordering a heavy and lately there was quite a bit of deviation from initial trend channel on the down side. As I have mentioned before the late bull Trend breakout does not correspond to a but rather seems to be an correctional wave, which (if true) would indicate to a downturn to 1.25 levels. Again I am not saying that the prices will go up or down at this point. All I am saying is that there are no definite indications yet which way it will go. Thus I will wait.