1-The (from III-IV on chart) has NOT been broken
2-There is no weekly reversal bar pattern.
So that means technically we are stil and firmly l in a market. Any Long position at this stage will carry more risk for the longer term trader.
The trend from III-IV is difficult to analyse as a pattern yet. In some aspects it seems like a barely detectable ABC and some may argue that it looks like a 1-5 pattern. Both can be true. I tend to lean on the ABC Pattern side.
So what is the next move?
I believe that the major weekly support (shown as a green box) will hold and that we will see a reversal. In other words I don't expect a sharp piercing through this support (unless of course a main event triggers it like no rate increase announcement). We need to be patient, before we can declare that the 5th major move (yellow IV-V wave on the chart) has begun. Good Trades