USD/CAD: Technical outlook and review.

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
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Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the USD/CAD             pair close above a major weekly swap level coming in at 1.1870. As a result, price advanced             to a fresh high of 1.2045, and has at the same time likely opened the gates to much higher prices in the future.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe however shows that in order for further buying to take place, a daily swap level at 1.2022 will need to be taken out beforehand.

4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the 1.2000 psychological level is proving a difficult barrier to break. With that being said, the two spikes seen above this number (red arrows), the first at 1.2016 (14/01/15), and the second, the larger of the two at 1.2045 (16/01/15) may have been enough to stop out the majority of sellers attempting to fade this level. Therefore, could we assume that this level is weakened? We believe so, especially with the recent break above the major weekly swap level (see above).

With the above in mind, selling at current prices is not something we’d be comfortable with at the moment. We are however interested in looking for buying opportunities between the 1.1900 handle, and the aforementioned weekly swap level (yellow area). Lower-timeframe buying confirmation will be needed here since the daily timeframe shows that other than the weekly swap level itself, there’s really very little stopping prices from faking below into a daily decision-point demand area seen at 1.1795-1.1834.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: watching for lower-timeframe confirmation between 1.1900 and 1.1870 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.1864).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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