EverythingForex

UPDATE #1: TRADE: USDCAD: BUY@1.30145 Wave (A) of 4 Done.

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
1354 7 30
Here are my updated TP's for this trade. Since I am now thinking that this pair is now in a wave 4 retracement having just finished the wave 3, I am going to be playing this wave 4 as a possible ABC pattern of some sort. Will it be a more complex pattern than that? Can't know now. Will just need to see how it unfolds. But for now, this bottom of this nice downtrend could be the end of the wave (A) of that wave 4. If so, we should now be expecting a wave (B) to start. One thing that happens almost ALL the time is that whenever you get an "end" to any major trend (which I don't think we have gotten to the "end" yet), you will almost CERTAINLY see that high/low point get retested. Well, whether my wave count is correct or not, the recent highs need to be retested. And that what this wave (B) will be doing: retesting the highs.

Therefore, I anticipate that this wave (B) should my wave count be correct should at the very least get into the .618 of the G-Zone if not higher than that. I have marked a MAJOR SR Structure level on the chart and that structure rests at the .786 retrace which is a VERY common retest level. I'm thinking that may be a good a place as any for the wave (B) to finish up. Therefore, I am placing a TP3 at that point. But of course, with each TP this trade hits, I will be evaluating the PA to see how much if any profits I'll be taking off this trade and putting in my pocket.

When that wave (B) finishes, I'll be VERY INTERESTED in going SHORT for that wave (C) down which I think will be pretty DEEP! Given that my wave counts are correct of course!

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

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cimermanm
a year ago
LIKE
Reply
Steven.Swart
a year ago
I always admire your trades and ideas. I know you dont like questions about your levels, but how did you determine TP1 in this case? I am new to bat and wave formations and am interested in your way of thinking ;p
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EverythingForex PRO Steven.Swart
a year ago
If I am playing a trade off of a harmonic pattern, then the TP1 and TP2 are the standard TP's for harmonic patterns. In this case, the TP's are the .382 and the .618 retracements of the CD leg of the cypher.
+1 Reply
shreeraj5432
a year ago
It seems that your estimate was right my friend :). RSI & Directional volume also is indicating this pair to be long from here on. Thanks for the analysis.
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TradebyRik
a year ago
Its been always great to see the wave analysis which helps me to improve on my own. As my opinion, can you predict the WAVE 4 pattern if you already know how your WAVE 2 payed out. Usually if wave 2 is ABC then wave 4 may not be the same. Correct me , if i am wrong

Reply
EverythingForex PRO TradebyRik
a year ago
Sorry for the late reply. Missed your comment as I get so many notifications, old comments get pushed way down my Notifications so sometimes I miss them.

But anyway, Elliott has a guideline called "alternation" where he states the if wave 2 is a sharp correction then wave 4 will be a sideways correction and vice-versa. Its a guideline and not a rule as this is NOT always the case. But in general, it does happen. Since in my wave count for the degree that applies to this wave 4, the wave 2 is not so easy to say it was sharp or sideways, it is also not easy and straightforward to say that this wave 4 will be sharp or sideways. A case can made for both. But that is the nature of Elliott wave counting, it is very subjective and left to a lot of individual interpretations. This is why although I do use wave counting (note: I did not say ELLIOTT wave counting) a a primary tool in my analysis, by no means do I rely solely on it to determine my trades. GL!
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ygautama24
a year ago
sir, as per this morning, the price hit lower than wednesday's low. point (A). is your count wave still valid then?thank you
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