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USD/CAD: oil price as key factor

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
16 0 1
Current trend

On Wednesday, the USD/CAD             pair is declining despite the USD growth against other “commodity” currencies. Today, market participant are waiting for the results of the Fed meeting. Most analysts suggest that the Regulator will keep its interest rate unchanged.
Global economic slowdown and increase in oil             production and export, while global supplies exceed demand, negatively affect the price of oil             . Thus, the CAD will remain under pressure and the USD/CAD             pair will continue its upward trend in the medium term regardless of the Fed interest rate decision.

Support and resistance

The pair has broken down the level of 1.3140 (23.6% Fibonacci correction) and is trading at the upper border of a downward channel on the daily chart , close to the level of 1.3255, the breakout of which may allow the pair to strengthen to year lows at 1.3450. A decline, on the contrary, is restricted by the levels of 1.3140 (23.6% Fibonacci correction), 1.3110 (EMA50 on the daily chart ), 1.2965 (38.2% Fibonacci correction).
OsMA and Stochastic on the daily chart recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, the indicators are likely to turn to short positions.
Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3140, 1.3110.
Resistance levels: 1.3255, 1.3300.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.3280 with targets at 1.3310, 1.3390 and stop-loss at 1.3220.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3190 with targets at 1.3140, 1.3110, 1.2965, 1.2890 and stop-loss at 1.3230.
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