fximperija

USDCAD: Scary or lovely?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
102 4 0
For those entered short around 61.8 hopping for ret. looks scary. For others longing from what ever price, it may look lovely.
isomorph
2 years ago
(just thinking out loud... ;) )

well, even though the market structure of USDCAD is 'weird' compared to GBPJPY, for ex, i'm getting an early sell signal... problem is, it could go just as fast as that most recent move up, or take more than 4 to 8 hours to develop. need to ascertain how likely it is for USDCAD to make new highs before the end of the week. but since we have major econ news re CAD coming tomorrow 21 FEB, perhaps it's best to wait.

daily picture doesn't say short, while weekly is showing very early signs of reaching a turning point that if confirmed will open the downside. H8 also at a key point that might develop into a reversal short. H4 and H1 already showing signs of bull momentum loss. of course, ccy will probably only enter range mode until the news comes out. regardless of all these 'signs', the news could change all that tomorrow and send the pair flying beyond WPR2, all the way to YPR2, but that would be a 200 pip move. how likely is that in the event of positive CAD news? personally, i'm skeptical.

in any case, i'd be ready for any additional signs anywhere from current levels to 1112 and 1154 (WPR2). on H4, for ex, price already move 3 standard deviations and bounced back (a little). however, on H8, price is at a critical point where if it doesn't break it and turn short, then it's going to be long all the way towards the 1300 level.

anyway, am going to wait and see whether or not WPR2 gets broken or just tested. if the latter, then short for 1000 target. if the former, then buy the dips for 1300 target.

in any case, need to wait until shortly before the news to identify positioning and based on this information + ccy position relative to key levels at that time, then will decide long/short/flat. for now, flat til a few minutes before news time.
Reply
isomorph isomorph
2 years ago
forgot to add... seeing as it is turning lower on H1 at the moment (well, very slowly as usual), maybe longs will close before tomorrow news event and that will bring ccy down to support at 1067 (WPR1), and at news time, maybe bulls won't be able to take out 1112 level. if which case, we'll get a wonderful opportunity to short from a great level. or price might even falter before 1112 and that will be very obvious if it happens, so also short before 1112. or the converse: ccy finds support and ranges around WPR1 and then rockets through 1112.

now that we know the levels, perhaps we should play it by using bracket stop orders: 1 stop buy order and 1 stop sell order, each 20 pips away from current price just before news comes out. if no whipsaw, then 1 or the other order will get triggered and you just need to let it ride. also, additional limit orders (limit buy above 1112 and limit sell below 1067) could add to the initial position once the stop order is triggered.

but anyway, i don't like USDCAD... not volatile enough makes it an exercise in patience and frustration. ;)
Reply
fximperija isomorph
2 years ago
The last sentence is what makes a trader. Don't know about frustration, because patience denies frustration. What i did is put a PO sell on 88.6 ret. and the price went up to that point. Few sec of (0.0) and the PA went down on mixed, but fairly better CDN news. Took a 50 (slippage 3 pips) so 53 pips on that short and closed. Yes, I saw there were more to get, but greed is not written in my personality so this was a good ride for me. Now looking at next opportunity for long @1089, if it gets there.
Reply
isomorph
2 years ago
yes, you're right of course. patience is an ongoing struggle for me. god knows it led me to screw up so many trades.
as re the last friday's trade, 50 pips on a ccy like usdcad in 1 session, i'd consider that more than decent.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out