USDCAD: In My Opinion A Mere Markdown Against The Bigger Picture

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U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar (FX:USDCAD)

FX:USDCAD U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar

Traders,

I think this a mere markdown in the bigger picture.

Oils large rise in price has been responsible for the CAD selloff. But I am not worried in the slightest. I am not shorting the pullback and I will wait for a long..

Only when the long term trendline has been broken (That or fundamental beatdowns) I will consider being a bear .

Shorting now is a bit like eating like a bird, and pooping like an elephant...

Tom

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TD says "Fair value estimate is 1.3090

RobertHerdman

Do remember, the word "estimate" was used.

Tom

I do agree. Premature at this moment. However, This morning I had to close all my long positions and I am on hold now. The intense thrust in oil and sharp turn in USDCAD piercing thru channels and resistance levels may indicate that this could be the starter of a larger move, even though my brent oil wave count is not yet complete. Let's wait what Mrs.Yellen will deliver this afternoon

TRDVMA

yep another 1860 seconds til the announcement.

Yeah it can't be denied levels were violated (More surprised about Crude than anything)
But announcement will see resolution to what is happening now

Pair printed a lower low @ 1,2831 (against former low @ 1,3016) and now prints a lower high (probably). For me this is downtrend until proven otherwise.

bloodbath

That or, that dollar is being weighed on due to everyones expectations that the Federal reserve won't support a rate hike.. Aiding moves in commodities. USDCAD will be the hardest hit due to the weaker dollar and dramatically rising oil prices.... Making this pair quite a target for a beatdown. Furthermore, some bearish expectations that commodities traders leant on have been diminished slightly, but it's in my opinion only "Slightly bullish"..

We are in a action stage at the moment, soon to be reaction, the resolution. Actions should be taken at the resolution stage, where sentiment will be "legitimate"

Tom

Tom_Killick

soon to be reaction, then finally, resolution*

Tom_Killick

That is true, FOMC must be resolved before adding confidence to either direction. However if technical picture is not overturned by FOMC, my bias is to the downside. Also on the 1H timeframe, price broke rising trendline and took former low. Can't be positive after all these signs. Lets see what happens after FOMC.

So you don't see the Lower Low and the Lower Highs in Daily already... same for USD. It could go up, but at this point is not what it says.

Baseball350

Yes I see those lower lows and higher highs.. Turn your attention to 17th June 2015, where we had a lower low and a blatant lower high... This was the beginning a new uptrend. Using your logic, you would been short and probably got F'ed because you don't understand where you are in a trend.

Tom

Tom_Killick

I guess time will tell. Best of luck mate.. ;)

Baseball350

Best of luck with all your trades :)

King regards
Tom

Great VISION, Tom!

moorekapital

" Only when the long term trendline has been broken (That or fundamental beatdowns) I will consider being a bear .

Shorting now is a bit like eating like a bird, and pooping like an elephant...
" I LOVE THESE WORDS ;) # though.

moorekapital

This guy's smart...also funny as hell.
Have a great weekend gentlemen.

IvanLabrie

Thanks Ivan, that's extremely kind :)

Waiting to long now...got an update Tom?

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