USDCAD - reasons to short

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
1069 18 16
I have a couple of reasons to believe we can make some short-term profits by shorting this pair :

- Bearish Gartley completion
- Resistance level (blue line)
- Trendline
- RSI overbought
- consolidation over the last month at this price level

The opportunity presents itself with a very decent 2/1 reward/risk ratio for target 1 (. 382 retracement ) and 3/1 for target 2 (. 618 retracement ).

Question is however how long this consilidation is going to persist as on the daily chart we have a pennant or descending triangle forming and a breakout to both sides seems possible.

Good luck if you are trading this and may the pips be with you. As always, constructive comments are always welcome !

I concur, although I drew the pattern a little bit differently. Be aware, we might be offending the sensibilities of strict with-the-trend traders lol.
USDCAD: a Bearish Gartley on the Loonie Part II
+1 Reply
Now now ... do we care about that ? ;)
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EmmyTrades JasperForex
jasper and nico agree. Paying attention to this one.
+2 Reply
Hehe, thanks very much. It happens quite often that Jasper and I agree ! :) We do not trade exactly the same patterns and not exactly the same pairs, but we usually agree on the trend and the reversal zone :)
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agree with you.. there's a crab pattern too
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Nico.Muselle MOD shamrocktrade
Thank you for your reaction, and excellent find. This only adds to the possibility that price will reverse at that level :)
shamrocktrade Nico.Muselle
hahaha yess.. lets enjoy the ride tomorrow haha :)
Nico.Muselle MOD shamrocktrade
I agree, may the pips be with us :D
+1 Reply
Thank you, nice chart !

I think that it's a solid analysis especially even though the long term seems bullish, the weekly chart indicates that a deeper correction could be int the cards as well.

I know you're not too much in fundamentals but I find interesting that the leg up only occurred on friday because of the NFP results. The NFP number was good of course but most of the US data that were released this month have been kind of weak so far. Probably not good enough for an interest hike...

The oil prices have been ranging between 49 and 54 for while and the production is starting to slow down and the stocks my shrink.

So... the Canadian dollar could potentially recover before the US interest hike which will be like an atomic bomb across all the charts ! :D
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pascalde-aguiar pascalde-aguiar
*might not "my". I don't have a shrink ! ahaha
Nico.Muselle MOD pascalde-aguiar
Thanks for your reaction ! According to sources within the Fed, the interest hike will most probably not happen before June 2015, while oil prices will stay below 60$ for quite some time, so further consolidation of this pair is highly possible. I may not trade fundamentals, but that doesn't mean that I'm not aware of them ;)
+1 Reply
pascalde-aguiar Nico.Muselle
Thank you for your answer. I'm sure you are aware of them ! I must admit that I would love to see the price break the 1.24 support but it seems pretty strong !
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Nico.Muselle MOD pascalde-aguiar
Whatever price does, we'll just act upon it to make sure we get some pips coming our way ;)
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Nevertheless, thanks a lot for your positive feedback ! Really appreciated !
Very Good, but dollar index continued up, it´s not down soon.
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geopapa InvesBursa
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Hi All
I think this pair is not yet ready for a change especially if price stays above 1.25162 and a close above 1.26403 will send price higher to make a new high IMO
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