ICmarkets

Interesting price action seen on the Loonie

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
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Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the USD/CAD pair has increased in value. As a consequence, price is now trading just below a weekly supply area at 1.17225-1.15417 (located within a larger weekly supply area seen at 1.18061-1.14739). Let’s see what the lower timeframes have to say about this.

Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe indicates that before any selling is seen from the weekly supply area mentioned above (1.17225-1.15417), further buying may take place. The reason we believe this to be true is simply because price has recently closed above a major daily swap level coming in at 1.14861. In addition to this, the path north above this level is clear of resistance (in our opinion) up to a daily supply area coming in at 1.17225-1.16182 (located deep within the weekly supply area just mentioned).

4hr Timeframe: The USD/CAD pair did indeed see further selling from 1.15; nonetheless, it was short lived. Buyers aggressively came into the market around 1.14451 and broke above 1.15, which as of yet has not seen a retest.

Considering the price structure on the higher timeframes at the moment (see above), we are relatively confident a rally higher will ensue. The most likely scenario we see playing out is as follows: Price will decline in value down towards 1.15, and test this level for buying strength, if there are not enough buyers here, price will slide down towards a 4hr decision-point demand area at 1.14476-1.14653. This area is important to us since it was likely here where pro money made the ‘decision’ to trade above the aforementioned daily swap level. That being the case, we are going to be watching for lower-timeframe buying confirmation around the 1.15036 (just above the round number 1.15), and we’ll place a pending buy order at 1.14688, as it is very likely there are unfilled buy orders still lurking here – hence a reaction is possible.

For anyone considering trading these levels, please remain aware that we are effectively buying into higher-timeframe supply here, and as such, all long trades should be carefully monitored.

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: 1.15036 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on where this level is confirmed) 1.14688 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.14407).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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