Is USDCAD ready to make its next step lower?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
70 10 2
Price is within the 50-61.8 Fibonacci levels. As well it is right up against multi-pivot lines within a bigger overall downtrend. I am looking to short it against the upper parallel of the modified schiff with a target of the lower parallel. I chose this as opposed to the median line because of the nice confluence with the 123.6 fibonacci extension and the median line of the larger modified schiff that has been guiding price for a while.
Price finally stopped me out (not for a loss, I had already collapsed risk).
ForceFollower wuweitrader
Very well. :) It didn't want to go down.
Price is at a decision level here (at the Blue Line). Previously there was a flush through it. If the line holds, we might see a move back up, if it breaks, the next area to watch is where previous low were (about 10857 area) and then the lows below that (1.08277) and the blue median line set. But if this current Blue line break, Hagopian might be in effect.

My stops were moved to breakeven (which is above the upper median line set, and if it break up there from here, my whole trade is off and I want out).
+1 Reply
ForceFollower wuweitrader
A great study. It confirms the bearish condition - has broken down from the small channel. I'm still short.
wuweitrader ForceFollower
Thank you
ForceFollower wuweitrader
I've closed it @ 1.08585. :)
I am short
Nice study, I like your MPLs. I'm short as well. My target is at the low of April 9th (1.08590).
wuweitrader ForceFollower
I was thinking of a few spots for the target. I had the low April (as you have), the median line from the smaller fork, and the median line from the larger fork. I was thinking a bit of Hagopian if it didn't hit the sliding parallel (which it hasn't) and thought maybe the lower median line parallel.

Is your trade recent or are you in it from the end of April?
ForceFollower wuweitrader
Your pink median line should be fine as well. Although, yeah, the Hagopian scenario is also possible - price didn't make it to the blue median line, so, based on the rule of Hagopian, it is likely to stretch the same distance outside the blue fork as it did within it.
My trade is recent.
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