FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
295 34 7
AFTER YESTERDAY'S BEARISH ENGULFING D1 CLOSE.
WE SHOULD LOOK FOR SELL ON ANY PULLBACK.
HERE IT IS, BEARISH PIN BAR SPOTTED ON 30MIN TF @ 78.6% OF YESTERDAY'S MOVEMENT.

JUMP IN FOR A SELLING OPPORTUNITY WITH STOPS ABOVE 100% AND AIM FOR AS LOW AS YOU WANT.

D1
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Hey Price, Great setup. At least there is no news coming from US or CAD, that will affect this pair. All the best :)
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Hi moneymaking, yea i hope so. Haha.
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Spiked out. SL hit.
+2 Reply
moneymaking PriceActionTrading
I think this is a stop loss hunting event move.
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IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
Yes, one more leg up.
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You are right money making. There are no sign of USDJPY USDSGD movement. Just purely canadians having too much time on their hands...
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PriceActionTrading PriceActionTrading
I will look for opportunities on 15MIN - 1HR to short once more.
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IvanLabrie PRO PriceActionTrading
Crude oil stocks change, I can smell the top here. Waiting for confirmation will be better.
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Thanks ivan.
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IvanLabrie PRO PriceActionTrading
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Yesterday's D1 close above 1.3000 pysch round number key level. Im considering the possibility that it is a false break. To confirm the false break, today's D1 must close below 1.3000. H4 shows bearish pin bar with RSI divergence.
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
Hey Price, ya I was also looking at that 4 hr pin bar. We did get a daily close above the 1.3000 round number. But the monthly top is 1.30632, as pointed out earlier by Ivan. This is a tricky situation, it did gave us a daily close above the psychology round number but it hasn't reached the monthly high yet. What do say mate :)
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I say sell if it closes below 1.30 on H4 minimum. The close above 1.3 is not backed by any fundamentals or technical findings. The RSI divergence on H4 shows much about the lie it is trying to put out.
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
I only take RSI divergence seriously when the market starts to break structure. Take S&P 500 for example, the RSI (7,close) has been diverging since 1996 on the MONTHLY time frame. Until the market starts breaking structure, this divergence will keep on going.

Therefore, we MUST take structure into account when identifying RSI divergences.

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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
I am likely to sell USDCAD once the market breaks and close below the blue zone marked in the chart below. What do you think Price OR Ivan?

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Thats alright. Very conservative. Valid sell.
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
Would that be too late to enter into a short position according to your analysis?
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That would be too conservative.
I would sell at a retest of the H4 pin bar once price closed below that pin bar.
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
Is this how you trade pin bar price? You sell after the getting a close below the bearish pin bar's low and vice versa?

What if the market closes above the high of the bearish pin bar, does that invalidate the pin bar setup?
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Yea, trade after a close below the pin bar. if market closes above, it does invalidate the pin bar. If price goes above the pin bar, there will be many buy stops pushing the price further higher.
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
No, but would you still trade the bearish pin bar after the market closes above the pin bar's high?
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
My bad, I read your reply incorrectly. Got it.
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Anyways the low of the pin bar is near 1.3000. Once we see a H4 close below 1.3000 its pretty much a sell mate;
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
Great, I got the picture now. Thank you mate :)
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
Thank you for clarifying mate, appreciate it :)
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
Tomorrows news from CAD and USD are likely to set the direction for this pair. If they didn't then we have the biggest news coming next week, the Federal funds rate. Either of these are likely to set the tone for this pair.
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Alright. I have bearish momentum for USDSGD USDJPY. see if USDCAD will follow suit.
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moneymaking PriceActionTrading
I'm already short on USDJPY, let's see how it goes.
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IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
USDJPY being tied to SPX might have pending upside still...minimal, but it's possible.
USDCAD should be a short very soon.
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moneymaking IvanLabrie
Yes, I entered with minimal risk possible. Let's see how it goes :)
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moneymaking IvanLabrie
Hey Ivan, do look at the USDOLLAR index? If you do, could you just give your insight on it based on Daily or higher time frame?

Thank you :)
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IvanLabrie PRO moneymaking
09:30 US USD Initial Jobless Claims (Jul 17) 1 280K 281K
09:30 US USD Continuing Jobless Claims (Jul 10) 1 2.225M 2.215M
09:30 CA CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (May) 1 0.8% -0.6%
09:30 CA CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (May)

This will give us our short.

As for the dollar index, I do. But I don't think it'll affect all dollar pairs the same. They have their own timing.
I see 3 categories:
-gold correlated (nzdusd/audusd)
-crude correlated (gbpusd, usdchf, usdcad, eurusd)
-SPX correlated (usdjpy)
So they more or less do their own thing.
I think the dollar index will correct sharply now, it's a matter of time.
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thank so much
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NZDUSD: Market is coming back into previous broken support which should act as resistance.
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