Trade: Buy USD/CAD @ 1.3400

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
I have bought the USD/CAD pair @ 1.3400 with an initial stop @ 1.3100 and a target of 1.4500 although I will close the trade on a daily close below 1.4000.


The trade has been opened more on the longer term fundamentals than the shorter term sentiment given that the Fed are expected to hike this year and there is no Oil recover set in stone. Sentiment favours the CAD in the short term given the strong GDP reading today and oil remaining supported so I am hoping the 1.3400 handle can hold up against this until the sentiment swings back in line with the fundamentals.


Support is found at 1.3400 back to October 2015. The pair is in an uptrend with all MA aligned to the upside. Stop has been placed below 200MA which may provide support if the trade doesn't take off right away. 1.4500 is the upside high which provides this trade good risk reward for a swing trade.


Most notable risk in the near term would be a poor employment report this Friday from the US and any positive news for a freeze in Oil production.
Trade closed manually: Trade Closed @ break even before the NFP release with the aim of re-opening a buy position on a positive close to the session. I do not intend on re-opening this position as direction is now unclear and if anything would favour some more downside. Will look for next possible buy position.


Looking at the next possible entry for the USD long at 1.3000. There should be strong demand at this level for at least a bounce off of the area. Fundamentally the fed may be looking strong for a rate hike which could assist the USD higher still. The trade will need to be reviewed and managed nearer the time of execution for sentiment and fundamental change. I would not be willing to enter earlier as price would not be as appealing given the current selling of USD.

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