USDCAD: Forecast - Cloudy But Now With Clearing Picture

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
1091 9 25
With the recent move down and now a nice retracement, the previous murky picture is becoming more and more clear. There still are many different paths that prices could take but what I am presenting here are 2 scenarios that I think are most likely. As usual, I do "look ahead" studies and this is one of them. Though they are only STUDIES and are very loosely based on some projections, they are much too early to know with any confidence that either will be correct as there isn't enough data to say so. But they are useful in planning and preparation. Normally wouldn't post these things as I do them for my own use but thought some might find it useful. If not, then maybe I won't post them in the future. But for those that always ask me how professional trader's plan their trades, this is an example of some of the many preparations that needs to be done to be successful. It isn't as easy as just sitting around waiting for some pattern to show up. Successful trading takes a lot of preparation and planning.

"Luck = hard work and preparation". Good things DON'T come to those who just wait. They come to those that work hard and are prepared to take advantage of good opportunities when they present themselves.

So here are the 2 scenarios:

Scenario #1
In this scenario you see on the MAIN chart above, that recent downtrend is not over and it has only completed the wave iii             of the 5-wave             wave (A). The recent pullback is just the wave a of the wave iv which when finished will have retested that upper TL (extended) of the former triangle pattern . Also a minor structure are and just below the wave i of this 5-wave             wave (A). When wave iv is done, we'll see a wave v down to a MAJOR SR Structure zone where wave (A) will complete and then we will see a wave (B) commence to go up to retest the highs.

Scenario #2
In this scenario, I have that large recent down trend as a completed 5-wave             move marked as the completion of wave (A) of a large wave 4 that is in its' early stages of development. Because its' labeled as a completed wave (A), then the next move must be a wave (B) up. IF wave 4 unfolds as a ABC (5-3-5) zigzag (and that's a BIG IF right now), then we will see a 3-wave             wave (B) to retest the highs. This 3-wave             wave (B) would itself unfold as a ABC (5-3-5) zigzag pattern.

Although I've laid out these 2 possible scenarios, as I mentioned, it's just way too early to say which one is correct or if neither is correct. There are many other ways this wave 4 correction can unfold such as a triangle pattern as well for example. Or maybe this isn't a wave 4 at all! Only time will reveal the true story. We can only guess. I'm just posting this to give some kind of expectation as to where prices could go next.

Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!

If you like my posts and find them helpful, please take a second to hit that LIKE button and follow me so I can know my post was helpful to you. As always, any CONSTRUCTIVE comments are welcome whether AGREE or DISAGREE.
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what I like about your post is that it is forward looking rather than hind-sight.......everybody sound like a genius IN HIND-SIGHT!
I will follow these two scenarios closely. Keep up the good work.
Keep in mind. these are only 2 scenarios out of many possibilities at this point. I have other studies I've done on other possibilities but I won't bother to post them because that's too much posting so I only posted the 2 I think as of now make the most sense. DON'T follow anything I post blindly though. Make sure you do your own analysis.
hlmachado EverythingForex
I will do it. Thanks.
HI EF. Always great to learn from your "looking ahead" TP which rarely is seen from other PRO TRADERS. Coming to the scenarios, would the formation of LARGER WAVE 2(in blue bold) give an indication how NOT WAVE 4 will be. This is what EW analysis helps to know - WHAT NOT TO EXPECT.
LARGER WAVE 2? Where? What wave 2 are you referring?
TradebyRik EverythingForex
Wave 2 is not marked on your chart, but i am referring to the wave 2 pattern that you would have analysed preceding the wave 3(that's marked and completing on 29th Sept timeline). For eg if WAVE 2 was zig-zag term , then it may not be the same in upcoming wave 4.
Ok, I see what you are saying now. But the wave 2 that I have marked is not a zigzag. Its a sideways correction. And a very small one at that.
congratulations , the first part of the study went well . I continue to follow your ideas , good day ...
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