MY ASSESSMENT: THE TOP IS NOT IN!
USDCAD has been pretty difficult to predict lately. This is because of the fact that EVERYONE seems to be trying to catch what many are assuming might be the TOP of the current larger uptrend. There's a lot of back and forth going on as is usual when such speculation is occurring. Bulls and bears are fighting it out. So I have thus far been avoiding this pair because of this convoluted mess. But now, with the recent price action, the wave count seems to have become somewhat clearer to me. At least from my perspective. I've always held the view that the TOP of the current larger uptrend and thus the wave 5 is NOT OVER and NOT DONE. I am still holding the same view now. THE TOP IS NOT IN!
In fact, what we are seeing I believe is only the ending of the wave 3 of that larger uptrend and we will be seeing a retracement into the wave 4. So this "top" is really only the "top" of the wave 3! Yes, I know that maybe I'm the ONLY one on this planet who thinks that! OK. So maybe I'm not. But I don't think the popular consensus thinks so. So many "experts" are calling this the end of the wave 5 and the end of the overall uptrend, I feel I may be alone in counting the waves this way! Anyway, I'm not an "expert" by any means but this is my POV. In eitther case, presently, I do see a fall in prices coming and maybe happening now. Difference is only that I see this fall as only a wave 4. And not a beginning of any MAJOR REVERSAL.
In the main chart above, what I am showing is that the wave 3 (red) of the wave (v) may be done and that we are seeing the wave 4 (red) starting. There is a POTENTIAL here that when filled could mark the end of this wave 4. Also, the completion and its' PRZ would be near the retest of the upper TL of the wave 2 triangle. So this area would be a good place for wave 4 to end and wave 5 back up to new highs will commence.
OVERVIEW - Monthly Chart: Overall Wave Count & Projection
I've struggled with the overall wave count for awhile. That's why I had not put out a full analysis on this pair in awhile and preferred to stay away from i as well as warning my clients to do so as well. So many people are speculating that this pair is near it's top that it's dangerous to stay LONG but yet, it's also hard to say to go SHORT just yet But here, what I am showing as my wave count projections and I know it will be controversial to many and many will disagree. But that's OK. I'm not saying my wave count is correct but it is how I see it. This pair is NOWHERE NEAR IT'S TOP! For me, this is the only wave count that makes sense technically. So I am going with it.
WEEKLY CHART - Focus In On The Wave (3)
It's probable that prices are approaching the end of ONLY the wave (3) of 3 and the coming fall in prices will ONLY be the wave (4) of 3 and not the top that many are expecting.
DAILY CHART - Focus On The Wave v of (5) Of The Larger Wave 3
By my wave count, the current move up is still not finished. Currently, we could be only seeing the ending of the larger wave 3.
4HR CHART - Overview Of Wave (v) of (5)
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However, i do have one question. but this question is not to critisize your strategy, that is your method and i can see it is working well for you in many cases, but i am asking to merely understand.
Harmonic Patterns are abit confusing to me because they are quite contradictory to eachother and doesnt always give a clear view of the market and that itself is one of the reasons that raises the risk of trading with harmomic patterns as a strategy and why my trades are not hugely influenced by harmonic patterns. I have noticed on your posts, that quite frequently you tend to trade a long or short before the cypher/bat/gartley pattern is formed. Trading after the completion would reduce risk by a huge amount, however, you tend to also trade before the completions. My question is why trade before the completion? - isnt there a greater risk as a harmonic pattern at that stage hasnt really been confirmed.
Also why not use wave theories and others? what is your opinion on them
Just asking to understand.
That leads me to the answer to your next question: why do I trade patterns before they complete?
Answer: I don't. Well, not entirely, anyway. When you see me taking a trade upon the completion of the C point of a pattern instead of waiting for the D point and thus the completion of the pattern, I am taking that trade due to my wave count AND that the pattern's C point may be there. It is not based on just trading the pattern's CD leg. You'll also see many times that I will use the completion of the harmonic pattern as a point to where a wave in my wave count should end. Of course, it all MUST fit into and make sense according to my wave count. Or else, I do not take that trade. Regardless of the pattern.
I hope that answers your question.