Trendhopper
Short

USD CAD - BUTTERFLY TOP - SHORT @ 130300

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
94 0 4
Bearish Butterfly pattern - short at 1.30300 - (sorry D point is out of screenshot at 1.30300)
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Here we are ...point D now clear.......
Trade active
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Butterfly has gone to the 1.618 extension ....thats the problem with the butterfly...can be either 1.272 ext or 1.618....my stop is over 1.305.....so covers this possibility.....
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Looks like the bearish butterfly did its job, although unusual to see price go higher straight after...its just held nicely at 1.30350 .618 retracement...so looking good so far
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Take profit ...safe option is around 28.25......however , I will be watching oil.....if its bullish and goes on a 5th wave unto 55-60 area...then I will be targeting 1.25 (double bottom)
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Ive exited the trade, very small loss incurred, the butterfly was on a short timeframe and did reverse price to 1.30.( but its affects have worn off) ......price now looks too bullish and in a channel it wants too retest the top for a 3rd time, RSI no longer convincing, I will continue to monitor this alongside DXY.....I will look at price action and RSI around the 0.618 retracement level. and short on a pullback...an oil breakout upwards is due in the next 2-3 days and USDCAD will fall.
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Im loving the butterfly today !!!

USDCAD now looks to be headed for 1.315 as this is end of the AB=CD impulse @ 1.618 ext and also .786...fib..(the butterfly fib)....so I will be shorting at 1.315......this could be the road to the 1.34 area ...see my previous post on USDCAD...either way its very likely a reversal at this level....
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5 wave and ABC correction....shame I will be in bed and miss this!!!
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oops,, here is the chart
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Butterfly top pattern looks likely due to the 0.786 retrace.....so short at D ...TP 1.3065........
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Heres the right chart!!!

allow stop loss to 1.318....as butterfly could extend to 1.618 extension and finish around 1.3110
Comment: should have read SL @ 1.3118
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Nice !
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This is still a topping formation..the 5 wave sequence confirms this....just adjusted stop loss a little to allow for a longer spike...longer ABC correction with this pattern :0)))
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Another butterfly...if you aren't in...another short opportunity.....1.33108
Comment: correction......1.3108
Comment: lets get it right... 1.31308.......there
Trade active:
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Just completed ..so shorted at 1.3132.....SL is over 1.35......reason is because 1.35 is the next fib line of resistance....
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1.3474...this is a reversal level ...0786 fib....I think price will finallyt urn down now...target is the 1.295 resistance area.....
Comment: numbers are confusing...its 1.31474
Trade closed: target reached: Ive taken profit on two of the shorts at 1.30005

Ive opened a small long position with TP of 1.3105

I will let my other short run for now...
Trade closed: stop reached: my long was Stopped out. (small amount)..it was a bit risky I was going against trend and had too tight a stop....

I made a lot on the short so not too fussed...

It may have bottomed at 1.30....but I wont be buying again unless we are around 1.295 area......it should bounce off one of these prices up to 1.309...1.3105....I will be shorting in that area....
Trade closed manually: TAKEN PROFIT ON SHORT FROM 1.313
Trade active: Gone long at 1.2955
SL 1.2935
TP 1.306 - 1.31 area...watch price action
Trade closed: stop reached: Another valuable lesson learned......rushed in a bit too early on this one...
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