USD/CAD - A rally will follow, now or later ?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
105 20 5
A break of "i' would confirm wave 3 of wave C has started. However, it is possibe that we will see a move down to end wave C of (B) within a larger correction,.Therefore, a break above "i" is probably the safest way to grab wave 3. Below 1.2460 would invalidate both scenario's.
Like you I'm looking for usd/cad and eur/cad to fall in the future. These apparent C waves for 2 have been so time-consuming and whippy that they've been giving me a headache, particularly eur/cad with its endless swings in 3s. In any case I really like your work, clean and detailed and to the point. Your comment about EW on your website was excellent too. Thanks for sharing your charts.
Thank you Ezodisy, like yourself I think USD/CAD has topped at 1.47 and the move from 90 (2007) was corrective against the down move which started in 2002. Also WTI looks to have bottomed at 26 which will help the Canadian later on but is now in a correction as well. DXY needs one more push up imo.

So shortterm I'm bearish on the CAD, bullish on the USD. Long term bullish on CAD and Crude, bearish on the USD. So a massive trade might come up in the coming months.
+1 Reply
ezodisy EWStructures
Cheers. I share the same view, minus crude which I don't really follow. However I saw an overlay chart of crude on the CAD pairs and I see your point -- movements in sync in terms of oil up / CAD stronger. I've been trying to take a position for this C wave up in eur/cad but the whip has been tricky. Nonetheless it's the big move down in the near future which is the one to take.......It seems all these charts are telling of significant USD weakness in the future and the commodity currencies to strengthen.
Well, I'm in USD/CAD because the Dollar index points to go higher in my view, I think USD/CAD now in wave 3 (of C) after leading diagonal wave 1.

Let's track this move up and short this pair after wave C and larger 2 is complete, certainly agree with your last line.
+1 Reply
ezodisy EWStructures
nicely done. I'm wondering if eur/cad is forming a leading diagonal from the low, given the jagged moves so far. I think these waves have quite a way to run still.
EUR/CAD looks like a mess indeed.I think minor wave 1 is dat spike at June 24th, wave 2 completed at July 15th so I take it we're now in a third wave(of larger wave 1). About to break that last trendline me thinks.
ezodisy EWStructures
Thanks for looking at it. Your count definitely makes more sense than the extra three I was trying to fit in. I watched through that spike and felt I couldn't make it bullish at the time, but in hindsight that's probably just too much pedantry. It's bloody frustrating when you track a correction for nearly three months and feel you haven't got a spot to take a position -- mental block or otherwise. Although I'm bullish I'm finding this move from the low a bit too jagged, and am considering this sharp leading diagonal until it's broken -
I agree Ezodisy I would take that move from 1.4275 as a leading diagonal too considering the overlap, which now looks about to be complete. And you could be right about that WXYXZ but personally I would want Z to make a new low but that's not a rule at all but just preference, so I will certainly keep your scenario in mind.
ezodisy EWStructures
Cheers. I'd also prefer a low for Z and frankly don't really like the look of it. In books I've seen triangles for Z which have failed to make a low. Regardless I think the bottom line is that the low is in. In colloquial gab this'll be the old rounded bottom.
Rounded bottoms are great I picked my girlfriend based on that characteristic lol :)

Anyway I don't trade the news but tomorrow there are a few events that can push these pairs up until then it will probably be quite boring.
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