EWStructures
Long

USD/CAD - A rally will follow, now or later ?

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar/Canadian Dollar
105 20 5
A break of "i' would confirm wave 3 of wave C has started. However, it is possibe that we will see a move down to end wave C of (B) within a larger correction,.Therefore, a break above "i" is probably the safest way to grab wave 3. Below 1.2460 would invalidate both scenario's.
ezodisy
4 months ago
Like you I'm looking for usd/cad and eur/cad to fall in the future. These apparent C waves for 2 have been so time-consuming and whippy that they've been giving me a headache, particularly eur/cad with its endless swings in 3s. In any case I really like your work, clean and detailed and to the point. Your comment about EW on your website was excellent too. Thanks for sharing your charts.
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
Thank you Ezodisy, like yourself I think USD/CAD has topped at 1.47 and the move from 90 (2007) was corrective against the down move which started in 2002. Also WTI looks to have bottomed at 26 which will help the Canadian later on but is now in a correction as well. DXY needs one more push up imo.

So shortterm I'm bearish on the CAD, bullish on the USD. Long term bullish on CAD and Crude, bearish on the USD. So a massive trade might come up in the coming months.
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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
Cheers. I share the same view, minus crude which I don't really follow. However I saw an overlay chart of crude on the CAD pairs and I see your point -- movements in sync in terms of oil up / CAD stronger. I've been trying to take a position for this C wave up in eur/cad but the whip has been tricky. Nonetheless it's the big move down in the near future which is the one to take.......It seems all these charts are telling of significant USD weakness in the future and the commodity currencies to strengthen.
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
Well, I'm in USD/CAD because the Dollar index points to go higher in my view, I think USD/CAD now in wave 3 (of C) after leading diagonal wave 1.
http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_59073169.?1469448848

Let's track this move up and short this pair after wave C and larger 2 is complete, certainly agree with your last line.
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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
nicely done. I'm wondering if eur/cad is forming a leading diagonal from the low, given the jagged moves so far. I think these waves have quite a way to run still.
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
EUR/CAD looks like a mess indeed.I think minor wave 1 is dat spike at June 24th, wave 2 completed at July 15th so I take it we're now in a third wave(of larger wave 1). About to break that last trendline me thinks.
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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
Thanks for looking at it. Your count definitely makes more sense than the extra three I was trying to fit in. I watched through that spike and felt I couldn't make it bullish at the time, but in hindsight that's probably just too much pedantry. It's bloody frustrating when you track a correction for nearly three months and feel you haven't got a spot to take a position -- mental block or otherwise. Although I'm bullish I'm finding this move from the low a bit too jagged, and am considering this sharp leading diagonal until it's broken -
snapshot
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
I agree Ezodisy I would take that move from 1.4275 as a leading diagonal too considering the overlap, which now looks about to be complete. And you could be right about that WXYXZ but personally I would want Z to make a new low but that's not a rule at all but just preference, so I will certainly keep your scenario in mind.
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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
Cheers. I'd also prefer a low for Z and frankly don't really like the look of it. In books I've seen triangles for Z which have failed to make a low. Regardless I think the bottom line is that the low is in. In colloquial gab this'll be the old rounded bottom.
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
Rounded bottoms are great I picked my girlfriend based on that characteristic lol :)

Anyway I don't trade the news but tomorrow there are a few events that can push these pairs up until then it will probably be quite boring.
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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
well just be careful to keep your trading and private life as separate as possible. I got dumped by my girlfriend after she woke up to me using her body to map out the cup and handle formation. Some people don't appreciate dedication.

How's your usd/cad trade going? I am still looking at this eur/cad as a tightening LD. I feel like I'm mentally invested in a dud with that pair.
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
lol I'm not even going to start about "Gaps" then :)

I think that Leading diagonal ended at 1.4568 and eur/cad is already in wave 3, so below 144.58 personally I would kill the trade. That correction down on the DXY is not helping USD/CAD but I'll hang on tough, still optimistic we see higher grounds before the deep plunge.





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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
Cheers. I was trying to tack on an extra gyration to the LD, so if the next high fails to turn around I would give it up. I still feel it's too ugly, but a sharp move will get rid of that of course
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ezodisy ezodisy
4 months ago
well that looks on the verge of dying. I have a question for you, since this is really frustrating me after tracking it for months. When you take a position and there isn't a clear candle to enter on, are you still entering based on wave structure and positioning, knowing the area which would make the count wrong? I'm finding it hard to enter positions when there isn't some kind of signal which sticks out to me.
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
I enter purely on my wave count, I don't look at the shape of candlesticks but often use channels and trendlines and want my wave count to complete at those levels. But I wouldn't take a trade based on a trendline alone.
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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
Cheers. I seem to always run into a problem using candles. I need to try to adjust to a more wave-based system for entering. Still lots to work on.
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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
Can I ask for your opinion about this monthly aud/nzd chart? Do you think this count is valid, that the recent five up could be the end of a flat for the larger wave 4? I was looking at this today as an alternative if price doesn't turn up for the projected bullish wave 3.

snapshot
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
Good chart, that's 5 waves down and I think it's a larger degree C-wave picture as this historical chart suggests.

http://fxtop.com/php/imggraph.php?C1=AUD&C2=NZD&A=1&DD1=01&MM1=01&YYYY1=1953&DD2=20&MM2=08&YYYY2=2016&LARGE=1&LANG=en&VAR=0

So the bigger picture is why I labelled it "1" and "2" and not "A" and "B" so I don't think this move up is corrective but impulsive.

This is still my view on AUD/NZD
AUD/NZD - Wave 2 is complete


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ezodisy EWStructures
4 months ago
Thanks again for your help. I have to inform you that I am going to be that one annoying guy who follows you around and asks you too many questions. Seriously you have the cleanest and most accurate charts I've seen and they fit into an ideal that I'm working towards. Cheers
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EWStructures ezodisy
4 months ago
My pleasure stay tuned, aud/nzd looks to have turned for real btw
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