We are most probably out of the long term bear market that lasted a few months. The sharp thrust which occurred at the beginning of may was a clear signal for that change. We are more than not into a new bull cycle. If this is true, there will be very good and profitable up moves ahead of us. We shall especially look for 3rd wave impulses. On the side of the opposite argument, one can say that the up-surge from the start of May may be just a correctional burst. The convincing argument is that the move (shape of the trend) does not match a 1-5 wave sequence and rather looks like an ABC formation. If this is true than the price may even retrieve back to 1.25 levels. At this point it is quite difficult to say which hypothesis is right which one is wrong.
If we come back to the immediate moment, there is a certain weakness on the charts. Bear in mind that Oil has still some juice left for some more advance and USD index is quite overbought. This would mean that we may not see a considerable up-move in USDCAD for a while. It is quite possible that in the short term we may see a retracement back to 1.27-1.28 levels, which will then complete a smaller ABC pattern shown on the chart. At that point it could be an excellent point to enter long. Currently there is no indication to convince me that I need commit long term long.
If we come back to the immediate moment, there is a certain weakness on the charts. Bear in mind that Oil has still some juice left for some more advance and USD index is quite overbought. This would mean that we may not see a considerable up-move in USDCAD for a while. It is quite possible that in the short term we may see a retracement back to 1.27-1.28 levels, which will then complete a smaller ABC pattern shown on the chart. At that point it could be an excellent point to enter long. Currently there is no indication to convince me that I need commit long term long.