USD/CAD bullish sentiment [June 12, 2017]

FX:USDCAD   U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar
152 0
Trading with caution, this week will be very volatile with high volume ,
also the FED decisions will greatly affect the market.

I will update as soon as possible if there are any newest developments.
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Trade setup
Suggested entries :
  • 1st entry : 1.343 with only 1/5 of your normal position size.
  • 2nd entry : 1.333-1.338 with the rest of your normal position size.
Take profit : 1.363 (possible up to 1.38).
Stop loss : 1.32 is preferred SL to anticipate price volatile.

Point of view
- market already pricing in 13-14 June us rate hike.
- if price action reject 1.35 then we should be cautious.
- oil price ( usoil chart) can retest $47.

Technical points
- support at weekly sma50 & sma100 at 1.328.
- resistance at daily sma50 at 1.35.
- minor trendline from January 31, 2017 lows.

Critical event
- FOMC statement on June 14.

  • Why the entry are so low at daily sma 100?
    Just in case, because after I look at the USOIL chart, there is a possibility of a rebound for the price of oil . Besides that I also anticipate retest of May 25 low candle. Be alert with under trendline false break.

  • Where is the target profit?
    61.8% fib retracement of the last swing down at 1.363.

  • Is there any chance of retest upper trendline?

This is my personal analysis that you should not accept as it is without any consideration of your own analysis. If you have any other opinion about this pair, i am very welcome. Thank you.
Comment: UPDATE, June 13, 2017

USD/CAD pair dropped i expected, now let''s not try to catch a falling price, we'll wait and see until tomorrow if there is a rebound from 1.327 and a bullish candle. Prepare yourself for today US CPI & retail sales data.
Comment: Possibly a reversal point, will be watching tomorrow for entry confirmation..
Trade active: UPDATE June 14, 2017, I do myself take a little position ahead of the FED press conference. Entry 1.322, SL 1.317 , TP 1.35. High SL/TP ratio. It's kinda like a bet right now, Good luck!
Comment: UPDATE June 15, 2017, We are floating in happiness! move SL to entry,
Comment: well break-even, sad story.
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