You need look no further than at the Monthly Chart of USDCAD to see this "wondrous" third wave in action . And it is a beauty! Well, for those that have been trading this pair LONG for the past months anyway. If you've been trying to SHORT it, not so much. If you have been trying to "catch the top", no doubt, you've been burned time and time again. I'll admit, I've been burned a couple of times! So the question now is, is it near it's end yet? My answer is "NO". It is not. Not even close! And if you are again trying to SHORT it as if it is near it's "top". you'll be burned again! That DOES NOT mean there aren't good SHORTING opportunities available but you must do so with the thought that any move down is nothing but corrective and temporary, IMO . So let's look at the reasons why I am saying this:
First, in the 4HR chart above, you can see for the short term, I am still expecting another move up soon. Right now, I am expecting a small corrective move down in what should be a wave (iv) of (3). It shouldn't go too far. I'm thinking probably to the rising minor TL (blue line). From there, we should see the wave (v) of (3). So IMO , there is not a good SHORT play here but there could be a good LONG play coming soon. When I see it, I'll be going LONG in a trend trade. But that LONG probably is not going to be a long term trade as the end of wave (3) could be drawing near. I have also added a POSSIBLE on the chart. Should price move up into the 1.42 price area, then this will become valid..
Click on each chart below to see more analysis:
MONTHLY CHART - Is Wave (3) End Near?
WEEKLY CHART - Wave (3) Nearing Important Fib Clusters
DAILY CHART - 2 POSSIBLE Cyphers
MY TRADE PLAN
I'm waiting to see the end of this small retrace and will be looking for PA signs of a trend continuation in a wave (v) of (3). Keep in mind though, that according to my analysis, this wave (3) IS NOT the MAIN WAVE (3) of the main trend. See the for more clarity. When this smaller wave (3) is complete, I'll be looking to go SHORT for the ensuing wave (4) down of the MAIN WAVE (3) down. Although in the 4HR chart, I'm showing a brief wave (4) down, it could be much more significant than that.
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And a political event in Saudi Arabia with Obama's best friends - the head-choppers - they're at it again:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-02/saudi-arabia-carries-out-largest-mass-execution-25-years-after-beheadings-soar-2015
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!
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