FULL ANALYSIS: USDCAD: Some More Upside Before The Fall?

"Third waves are a wonder to behold" - Prechter

You need look no further than at the Monthly Chart of USDCAD to see this "wondrous" third wave in action. And it is a beauty! Well, for those that have been trading this pair LONG for the past months anyway. If you've been trying to SHORT it, not so much. If you have been trying to "catch the top", no doubt, you've been burned time and time again. I'll admit, I've been burned a couple of times! So the question now is, is it near it's end yet? My answer is "NO". It is not. Not even close! And if you are again trying to SHORT it as if it is near it's "top". you'll be burned again! That DOES NOT mean there aren't good SHORTING opportunities available but you must do so with the thought that any move down is nothing but corrective and temporary, IMO. So let's look at the reasons why I am saying this:

First, in the 4HR chart above, you can see for the short term, I am still expecting another move up soon. Right now, I am expecting a small corrective move down in what should be a wave (iv) of (3). It shouldn't go too far. I'm thinking probably to the rising minor TL (blue line). From there, we should see the wave (v) of (3). So IMO, there is not a good SHORT play here but there could be a good LONG play coming soon. When I see it, I'll be going LONG in a trend trade. But that LONG probably is not going to be a long term trade as the end of wave (3) could be drawing near. I have also added a POSSIBLE cypher on the chart. Should price move up into the 1.42 price area, then this cypher will become valid..

Click on each chart below to see more analysis:

MONTHLY CHART - Is Wave (3) End Near?

WEEKLY CHART - Wave (3) Nearing Important Fib Clusters

DAILY CHART - 2 POSSIBLE Cyphers

MY TRADE PLAN
I'm waiting to see the end of this small retrace and will be looking for PA signs of a trend continuation in a wave (v) of (3). Keep in mind though, that according to my analysis, this wave (3) IS NOT the MAIN WAVE (3) of the main trend. See the DAILY chart for more clarity. When this smaller wave (3) is complete, I'll be looking to go SHORT for the ensuing wave (4) down of the MAIN WAVE (3) down. Although in the 4HR chart, I'm showing a brief wave (4) down, it could be much more significant than that.

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