ICmarkets
Long

USD/CHF Technical outlook and review...

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
88 0 5
Weekly gain/loss: - 195 pips
Weekly closing price: 0.9679

Weekly view: Recent action shows that the Swissy extended its bounce from the underside of the supply at 1.0092-0.9928 last week, chalking up an impressive full-bodied bearish candle into the close. To our way of seeing things, as long as the bears continue to dig lower here there’s a possibility that the pair will shake hands with support at 0.9581, which represents the lower edge of the current weekly range in play (1.0092-0.9928/0.9581).

Daily view: Zooming in and looking at the daily picture, the candles are currently testing a support area carved from 0.9648-0.9708. Of particular interest here is the trendline support taken from the high 0.9884, and also the trendline support seen lurking directly below the current support area extended from the low 0.9443.

H4 view: Reviewing Friday’s action on the H4 chart reveals that price drove through multiple support structures, in spite of the US jobs report coming in relatively positive. Going by the close, we see room for the market to extend lower this morning down to a H4 Quasimodo support at 0.9661.

Direction for the week: Direction for the week is unclear. Weekly action looks to be on course to push lower this week, while daily structure shows a support area and a combined daily trendline support potentially hindering downside.

Direction for today: The aforementioned H4 Quasimodo support is a key level for our desk today. The area itself is fresh, as well as it sitting within the above said daily support area and fusing nicely with the daily trendline support penciled in from the high 0.9884.

Our suggestions: Put simply, watch for price to connect with the H4 Quasimodo support and wait for a reasonably sized H4 bullish close to take shape. Should this come to fruition, our team would look to buy here, targeting 0.9711/0.9679, which is made up of the following structures: October/August monthly open levels and the psychological boundary 0.97.

Of course, if the H4 bull candle is too large, we will likely pass since risk/reward would not be in our favor at that point.

Data points to consider: There are no high-impacting events due for release on Monday.

Levels to watch/live orders:

• Buys: 0.9661 region (reasonably sized H4 bullish close required prior to entry, stop loss: ideally beyond the trigger candle).
• Sells: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
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