ICmarkets

USD/CHF Weekly technical outlook and review.

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
24 0 0
Weekly TF.

One word currently describes price action on the weekly timeframe and that is BORING! Price has now been consolidating about the weekly demand area at 0.85664-0.88124 for nine consecutive weeks.

Daily TF.

Last week the buyers really showed their financial muscle, they bought heavily into price pushing it up to daily supply at 0.90372-0.90042 where a picture-perfect bearish pin-bar reaction took place. Price still remains capped between the aforementioned weekly supply area and a daily S/R flip level below at 0.88608 with a break of either of these levels yet to be seen.

4hr TF.

Following on from the last analysis on this pair, price did not decline down to the 4hr decision-point level at 0.89540-0.89614 as expected. As price action unfolded, we could clearly see more buyers were coming into the market, notice the tails south had stopped, and the wicks north had continued (marked with arrows) indicating pro money buyers were likely consuming supply for a possible rally higher, and that is exactly what happened.

A beautiful reaction has been seen at the round number 0.90000 as we expected it might, these big figure levels attract so much attention! Judging by the bearish price action seen so far, we believe we have a little way to drop yet, at least to around the 4hr decision-point area at 0.89540-0.89614. Taking all of this into consideration, price may not drop straight away early in the week, we may even see a small reversal back up to the round number 0.90000, which would consequently stop out all the traders originally short there with their stops set at breakeven, thus giving more liquidity for pro money to drop price down to the aforementioned 4hr decision-point area.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the decision-point level (0.89540-0.89614) at 0.89624. A pending buy order was placed here because price is currently seen retracing, and this area being the most likely place unfilled buy orders are remaining, so it seemed logical to set this type of order.
• P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen just above the low 0.88546 at 0.88586. The reason that a P.A confirmation buy order was set here rather than a pending buy order was simply because there is no logical area for a stop loss, and the low (level above) will be likely prone to deep tests, or worse, a positive break below, hence the need to wait for confirmation.

• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below the round number 0.90000 at 0.89974 is now active; do keep an eye on our first take-profit level set at 0.89741.
• No P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.

• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: 0.89624 (SL: 0.89523 TP: Dependent on price approach). P.A.C: 0.88586 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).

• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 0.89974 (Active) (SL 0.90140 TP: 0.89741 0.89624). P.A.C No P.A confirmation sell orders seen in the current market environment.

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