USD/CHF: Technical outlook and review.

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc
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Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe reveals that for the past two weeks corrective buying has been seen from a weekly swap area coming in at 0.8525-0.8274, which incidentally saw price recover nearly 50% of its value lost during the ‘black Thursday’ shock (Jan 15th). However, with price closing the week at 0.9197 just below a major weekly swap level at 0.9204, we have to be prepared for some resistive pressure to be seen this week…

Daily Timeframe: The past two weeks has seen two noteworthy areas of demand form, the lowest coming in at 0.8497-0.8697, the most recent, a daily decision-point demand area seen at 0.8933-0.9018. For anyone considering shorting this corrective market at the aforementioned weekly swap level, you may want to note down this near-term decision-point area of demand as a potential obstacle.

4hr Timeframe: Thursday saw the market rally quite aggressively, breaking above both 0.9100 and 0.9200 in the process. Friday on the other hand was less eventful as price was seen teasing 0.9200 effectively retesting it as support. However, support failed going into the U.S session resulting in price closing below this psychological threshold, potentially attracting further selling this week down to 0.9100.

Given that the weekly timeframe shows price trading around resistance at the moment, and the daily timeframe suggesting much the same (see above for levels), we are going to temporarily put a hold on any buying until price convincingly breaks above this weekly level. Selling on the hand could be a possibility on the retest of 0.9200 with 0.9100 as a near-term target, which should in all honesty not be too hard to reach considering the recent rise in volatility on this pair. Selling at market here is something we’re not comfortable doing, as price could just as easily fakeout above this round number, lower-timeframe confirmation is a must for us here!

Current buy/sell levels:

• Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

• Sell orders: Watching for lower-timeframe selling confirmation around the 0.9200 handle (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).

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