CapMoore

Daily Study. Pattern Completion and Risk for a bounce

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
242 35 4
Price has completed a full harmonic ab=cd at 0,87 level
which also perfectly coincide with minor 61,8 D point of
a large AB=CD going back to july 2013. Will price bounce
from this level, which one could expect, for another leg down
to complete the large ABCD or will it pass through directly.
The extended 1,618 D point of abcd pattern is also in
confluence with the completion of large ABCD and Monthly
S3.
CapMoore
2 years ago
To add. If one looks at the smaller cd leg, the PA looks fairly normal and not suggesting an extended D point.
Also, if price moves higher from here, this could also be the early completion of the larger ABCD. How to know
if 61,8 extension is the completion? Well, if 0,9255 , the larger C point, is taken out, it will tell us that reversal
is at hand.
Reply
ForceFollower
2 years ago
And we're sitting on .87, which favours a correction. Anyway, I'm watching this correction, still being bearish...
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itaskar
2 years ago
somewhere around 0,8380 is weekly HAS target, so I agree with this area
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
I went short at .8751. Looking to take some profit at that low at .8715.
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itaskar ForceFollower
2 years ago
I went short at 0.8749. target around 0.8650-70
snapshot
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ForceFollower itaskar
2 years ago
My target, .8715, is the minimum. But, of course, it can go lower.
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CapMoore ForceFollower
2 years ago
I have bought today, because of the extraordinary confluence seen here in the chart, and
the fact that price has held above that 0,87 handle for 4 days. Impressive pip to pip touch of
the smaller d-target. Very good Risk Reward right here. Trading above weekly pp today on and off
made me go in, not full sized yet.
Reply
CapMoore itaskar
2 years ago
It is a very bad time to go short, but well, you could hope for a break down. Pattern shown here
with extra ordinary confluence, notice also pip to pip touch of smaller d-point, and held above
some days now, may point to a bounce. This is the first time a good buy signal occurs on UsdChf
for quite a while. Be mindful of that, still, More of the Same is also a good bet, considering low
volatiliy and expected volatilty ahead. Good luck.
Reply
ForceFollower CapMoore
2 years ago
Sure, thanks for the words of caution. Overconfidence is my worst enemy. :-) However, as long as the risk control measures are in place, we'll both be OK. One trade doesn't matter that much - it's the strategy that counts. If it produces consistent results in the long-term, both you and me are going to be successful. :-)
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CapMoore ForceFollower
2 years ago
Absolutely, well put.
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itaskar CapMoore
2 years ago
yep, there is also clearly visible triangle in 4h, i was not attentive, thx for warnings
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Up it goes, as you said. I took my loss. Watching, what's next in store.
Reply
motleifaul ForceFollower
2 years ago
I don't understand you now. It's a clear downtrend. Why do you change your mind? You will probably see your target.
Look at the falling trendline. You bought at the resistance!
snapshot
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ForceFollower motleifaul
2 years ago
Motleifaul, there's got to be some misunderstanding. :-) I didn't go long. I went short and I took a loss, as I said. But I entered short again at .8867 and am still running this trade, looking to take profit at .878. :-)
Reply
motleifaul ForceFollower
2 years ago
That's o.k. Good luck!
I was wondering why you took that loss. Never mind, a stopp loss is a stopp loss. I experienced it many times as well.
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CapMoore ForceFollower
2 years ago
Mini target of smaller ABCD is 8912. Notice impulsive move from pattern completion.
cautious shorting this.
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CapMoore CapMoore
2 years ago
my plan, to buy dips at least to 8912 and look what happens. Sold off
some of the initial lots from bottom.
Reply
ForceFollower CapMoore
2 years ago
Sure, but the big trend is down, and before the utlimate reversal there's usually a final leg going with the old trend. But, OK. In case I'm wrong, I've raised my profit target to .8801 (the most conservative target for a short I can think of).
Reply
CapMoore ForceFollower
2 years ago
Sure, a downtrend is in place. I'm not hinting a long term reversal from this point, still sometimes ABCD pattern do
reverse from the 61,8 CD level. In this case coincinding with another completed ABCD. Still, as you say, until a reversal
or signs of it appear, long term shorting is the main strategy. I'd like to see some target of these two patterns achieved
before shorting, that is the main and only point. look at my intraday chart posted yday for levels which also could give you
good levels to place a short stop if you short. Also, USDOLLAR index looking contructive at this point, and UsdCad
eyeing higher (went long yesterday). Not trading EurUsd at this point, since a soft reaction at the current confluence
resistance around 1,3750. So it's a big picture weighed in too.
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Mirandole
2 years ago
My reedit :
snapshot
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Mirandole Mirandole
2 years ago
Probably useless. Sry guys ^^
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ForceFollower Mirandole
2 years ago
Why useless? What do you imply? Your fork's OK. I read it as 'price in a down trend and likely to retest your white quartile'.
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CapMoore Mirandole
2 years ago
Your chart?
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CapMoore Mirandole
2 years ago
If you comment here, you will explain in understable words what you are talking about.
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Mirandole Mirandole
2 years ago
Because you've probably already seen it.. :)
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Mirandole Mirandole
2 years ago
I am a young new trader and I went to bring something new to you...
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ForceFollower Mirandole
2 years ago
Please be welcome then. :-)
How long have you been trading? Whom did you learn the median lines' techniques from?
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Mirandole ForceFollower
2 years ago
I am 22 yo. I have been trading for around 5 months. I learned trading from the babypips.com school and also from some good traders' books. I am student but I just don't go to school because I make more money with trading than studying. So I study charts 9 hours a day... I hope I'll find some good ride.
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ForceFollower Mirandole
2 years ago
I appreciate your honesty, Serge. But as I am 40 and graduated from the university of economics summa cum laude, I'd recommend you go to school first and start trading for a living only after you've completed your education. Just so you don't regret your decision when you're older. Trading can wait. And also you can study and learn trading at the same time. Nothing wrong with that.
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Mirandole ForceFollower
2 years ago
Unfortunately I have better courses on the web than in France. In Future, I hope to find a better school or university to be student again. I don't like to waste my time at my school for now. But thx for your advice, you remember me my father xD. You're probably right but I'm too obstinate to change my mind on this. I like to think and learn independently.
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Mirandole Mirandole
2 years ago
And here in France, the free-public school system is being late with knowledge. Take a day to read a book from Stanford University is 5-times more interesting to study than my old-fashioned French courses..
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Mirandole Mirandole
2 years ago
I trade knowledge divergences too !
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CapMoore Mirandole
2 years ago
Im a university graduate too in Business administration and Economics, BA, being 48 yrs and been trading
for many years. Still, I think you should keep trading but with practice account or with micro lots, learn the
basics of money management. Regarding funtamentals which they teach in school, much of that can be
appreciated in less academic forms. Nothing wrong with education but many succesfull persons never had
the graduation and so forth. The technical approach,as a young, you will learn better than when you
get older so if this is what you want to do or feel insipred to master, I suggest that you keep working with it,
and grasp all aspects of it. Trading is mainly about discipline which is a life long task to manage and get better
at.
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CapMoore Mirandole
2 years ago
Good to hear, just drop your ideas when you feel like it.
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CapMoore Mirandole
2 years ago
It's not useless in the sense that there are channels.
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