Did price just respect the technical trend line?
Where to from here?
If support @ 0.88 holds, could see a long to 0.9928
decline to 0.7852
But will support hold? I doubt, considering the strong confluence of supp/res at 0.9938 and 0.9928.
To pin hopes that the SNB will support prices is like learning nothing at all from today's events.
Besides traders, even some brokers got hit due to the event. IG Markets lost 30 million pounds yesterday and there are many traders whose accounts went into negative equity.
The hedge fund might mislead the dump money, but the mastermind is all the central banks. When they get pissed off, they wont hesitate to let you know "Je Suis Swiss" :-), whether you are retail traders, hedge fund or close allies like Germany, they just don care, its back to Darwin's "the fittest survive" theory
Although I stick to my tested strategy, we had a very strong up trend in USDCHF that I kept on profiting from. I knew it would end at some point, but the backtesting results gave me the confidence to stay long. And then it happened - at first I thought I was watching some wrong chart, then I thought there were some bugs in the data etc., because what I saw was something I'd never seen before in the backtesting period. So again the rule holds: "If something hasn't happened yet, it doesn't mean it's not gonna happen". Like: "If you've never seen a black swan, it's not a proof for the lack thereof".
So who's gonna pay for the losses - I'm afraid those who have lost themselves. My broker hasn't "forgiven" me my negative balance yet, as promised in the public message, but my individual request remains unanswered, so I am still hopeful. But it would be no surprise, if they said, sorry, your case is different, etc.
Some source says: "The volume of futures contracts and one sided positioning by traders suggests we haven't heard of all the losses suffered, there were around 65,000 open futures contracts for 125,000 swissie each on the Chicago Merc Exchange alone.
If we figure 20% of that money was lost by one party on each contract, it comes to about 1.625 billion. And that is just the US futures market, there are forwards, options, spot/retail accounts, swaps and other sorts of arrangements. And foreign financial markets. Because the markets malfunctioned, losses and gains aren't going to people who were contractually supposed to have many of those gains and losses. A right mess."
Also, with SNB turning around in just a week (last interview was on Jan 5th when Jordan committed to the peg), it seems like ECB will be a big show. One of my trading resolutions this year is not to trade during events like FOMC.. Looks like i'll stay on the sidelines for next Thursday's grand showdown.
, and even on monthly chart, my emotional indicator is triggered, i am willing to hurt myself first to go against the strongest trend (that's why i say jump the gun)
when i shorted it at 1.00076, it shoot up to 1.019xx, you can calculate my initial loss :-), and of course as an average loser i added another short at 1.01555, and it continue to go higher WTF
Back strengthly, price is going higher, but Histogram alone is not joining the previous high, i got suspicious, and the price became euphoric and i am compelled to short it as i was getting really greedy. Another decision to short is it reached my personal EMOTIONAL indicator. Since i suck in intraday trades, i will actually keep the position until the pain is too much and i just cut.
Hence its consider lucky for me, had it GAP 1000 pips above, i wouldnt stop visit TV for quite sometime.