justatrader

USDCHF - Was this expected?

FX:USDCHF   U.S. Dollar/Swiss Franc
983 69 9
Hindsight!!
Did price just respect the technical trend line?

Where to from here?
If support @ 0.88 holds, could see a long to 0.9928
ELSE
decline to 0.7852

But will support hold? I doubt, considering the strong confluence of supp/res at 0.9938 and 0.9928.
To pin hopes that the SNB will support prices is like learning nothing at all from today's events.
I really don't know. I'm feeling stupid today. Fooled by USDCHF, as if I was trading some exotic pair.
Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
Ouch, you too??? I know the SNB and with it almost all central banker's credibility has taken a hit today. I can say I was safe, but this just highlights the fact that anything can happen in a moment. Did you get hit by the Stop loss or did your SL order fail to be filled?
+1 Reply
ForceFollower justatrader
OANDA froze trading this pair for about an hour. When they resumed my SLs were long gone and I was margin calledto a point that my account balance has a negative value. Now I have to send money, so they don't charge me the interest. And it was one of only two pairs I had positions in: short EURUSD and long USDCHF. EURUSD nicely went down and hit TP, but this market went against all odds - a black swan event that blew me away.
+1 Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
With your skill you can always make a come back, i am sure.
Don't get despair
Reply
ForceFollower jangseohee
Thank you, jangseohee. I'm feeling down indeed. When the dust falls, I will revise my strategy and get back on track.
+3 Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
Be sure to rest one week to clear your mind first! I have faith that you will be back stronger!
+1 Reply
Technician TOP ForceFollower
Buddy, really tough luck, i haven't seen or heard of such move before... I hope u didn't lose big amount of money, Check the client agreement for the issue of negative balance, don think that can legally happen.
+1 Reply
ForceFollower Technician
Thanks, Technician. The problem was the negative balance. But I was lucky, because today just before the noon OANDA brought my balance back to 0. So, I know I'll be fine.
The event made me think about the safety measures though, that AT ALL times have to be put in place.
+1 Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
Guys... does anyone know what will be the case with Tradingview? FXCM 90% down. What if they go belly up, considering FXCM is the data provider for tradingview
+1 Reply
ForceFollower justatrader
It crossed my mind as well. I wish them all the best. I hope the servers keep working in 2015.
Reply
Technician TOP justatrader
Hope all will be ok
+1 Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
Shoot!!! Sorry man. That's really messed up. But I did get some broker messages that they had liquidity issues and that they were sorting it out. Hope they clear it up for you.
+2 Reply
ForceFollower justatrader
Thanks, justatrader. I've actually sent them a message with a request to requote the margin call operation, so that the balance is zero, but I doubt they will do it for me.
Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
Good news man!!! https://fxtrade.oanda.com/community/forex-forum/topic/54010615/

If what they say is indeed true. Let me know how it goes.
+2 Reply
Newbie3YrTrader justatrader
So who paid the winner like Jangseohee? :)
Reply
jangseohee Newbie3YrTrader
My acc was wipe out once, so offset! :-)
+1 Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
You are safe now, Forcefollower!
+1 Reply
Dimitris ForceFollower
Request for an audit. The audit will determine that you had stops in place and if they are a serious company they should reembursh you with the difference. All serious brokers do so. I know this for a fact. Ava trade, FXCM. Insist on it.

Good luck !
Reply
Lol!!! Did you just wake up from a deep slumber?
+1 Reply
ForceFollower justatrader
LOL! :-D
Reply
Thanks, Dimitris. Hey, the thread is so long, you may have missed the happy-end part down below. :-)
Reply
Newbie3YrTrader ForceFollower
Hi, ForceFollower - i am lacking of knowledge in these kind black swan issue , hope you can teach me more

Broker said that client account will not go negative and in case it happen client are not responsible to pay back. ( Hotforex )

If loser doesnt pay the winner - who pay?

Thanks
+1 Reply
justatrader PRO Newbie3YrTrader
Hi Newbie3Yr... Yesterday's event was exceptional and something the broker usually doesn't cover in their usual terms. Because of the SNB removing the EURCHF peg of 1.20, the Swiss Franc strengthened. It sucked liquidity from the markets. So even when there was stop loss orders placed, it wasn't triggered. Some industry websites say the spreads were as wide as 1000 pips.

Besides traders, even some brokers got hit due to the event. IG Markets lost 30 million pounds yesterday and there are many traders whose accounts went into negative equity.
+2 Reply
jangseohee justatrader
FXCM and Excel Market too were hung almost dried!
http://lincolnreport.com/archives/458501
The hedge fund might mislead the dump money, but the mastermind is all the central banks. When they get pissed off, they wont hesitate to let you know "Je Suis Swiss" :-), whether you are retail traders, hedge fund or close allies like Germany, they just don care, its back to Darwin's "the fittest survive" theory
+1 Reply
justatrader PRO Newbie3YrTrader
FXCM, another victim as their trader's accounts went into negative. Meaning that the brokerage is owed 225million because of CHF yesterday. http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2015/01/16/fxcm-comments-regulatory-capital-requirements-chf-16-january-2015/
+2 Reply
ForceFollower Newbie3YrTrader
Thank you, justatrader, for the comprehensive response. Exactly, that's what happened on Jan 15th 2015, The Swiss Black Thursday! The dormant, pent up demand for CHF was so strong, so overwhelming that markets had to shift their sentiment immediately. A phenomenon I haven't observed yet in the currency markets since 2008 (the year I started trading in fx); I admit there were huge moves, esp. in the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen in the past, but here we've got a three-minute shift from a strong up trend to a strong down trend!

Although I stick to my tested strategy, we had a very strong up trend in USDCHF that I kept on profiting from. I knew it would end at some point, but the backtesting results gave me the confidence to stay long. And then it happened - at first I thought I was watching some wrong chart, then I thought there were some bugs in the data etc., because what I saw was something I'd never seen before in the backtesting period. So again the rule holds: "If something hasn't happened yet, it doesn't mean it's not gonna happen". Like: "If you've never seen a black swan, it's not a proof for the lack thereof".

So who's gonna pay for the losses - I'm afraid those who have lost themselves. My broker hasn't "forgiven" me my negative balance yet, as promised in the public message, but my individual request remains unanswered, so I am still hopeful. But it would be no surprise, if they said, sorry, your case is different, etc.

Some source says: "The volume of futures contracts and one sided positioning by traders suggests we haven't heard of all the losses suffered, there were around 65,000 open futures contracts for 125,000 swissie each on the Chicago Merc Exchange alone.
If we figure 20% of that money was lost by one party on each contract, it comes to about 1.625 billion. And that is just the US futures market, there are forwards, options, spot/retail accounts, swaps and other sorts of arrangements. And foreign financial markets. Because the markets malfunctioned, losses and gains aren't going to people who were contractually supposed to have many of those gains and losses. A right mess."
+4 Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
There will be more skeletons coming out no doubt. Hope Oanda does set your account straight. Did you know that yesterday's SNB event was totally unscheduled? Meaning that those who got away by not trading CHF yesterday was either pure luck or they really followed a good system.

Also, with SNB turning around in just a week (last interview was on Jan 5th when Jordan committed to the peg), it seems like ECB will be a big show. One of my trading resolutions this year is not to trade during events like FOMC.. Looks like i'll stay on the sidelines for next Thursday's grand showdown.
+1 Reply
ForceFollower justatrader
Yes, it wasn't included in any schedule. It was meant to be a surprise I suppose - perhaps they thought it would come unnoticed? LOL.
Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
anyone can explain this fundamentally?
an article saying this:
Reply
ForceFollower jangseohee
Saying what?
Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
sorry, i thought i pasted it, here you are

except for a few analysts who saw the mounting costs of maintaining (an official euphemism for 'rigging') of the Swiss franc to the euro to support Swiss export trade as becoming problematic.
+1 Reply
ForceFollower jangseohee
The SNB must have simply intervened in the currency markets to defend the EUR=1.20 CHF level, so their exports remained competitive. And they have been doing it for three years: selling the franc and buying the euro, so its supply is large enough. It was OK. as long as EUR was a strong currency, but when euro started falling below any conceivable support level, they saw they were buying a weakening ccy. They probably couldn't stand it any more and they said enough is enough: no more selling the franc in exchange of euros, let it go up...
+2 Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
and i suppose Swissy knows that Draghi means business this time!!!
Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
so OANDA just did it for public image :-(
Reply
ForceFollower jangseohee
I don't mind that, as long as play fair with me.
Reply
i only know i get suck into the channel with a lot of luck
USDCHF, big deal needs another big deal to offset
+1 Reply
ForceFollower jangseohee
I think this down trend channel still holds. You've caught it very nicely indeed.
Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
i enlarged my chart below with more detail explanation of how i came to the decision to queue that short order when i posted this chart initially
, and even on monthly chart, my emotional indicator is triggered, i am willing to hurt myself first to go against the strongest trend (that's why i say jump the gun)
Reply
Wonderful analysis.
Bhalchandra
+1 Reply
I was giving this chart a lot of thought. I think in real time it would have been hard to pick a direction. Although because price was still below the trend line, it would still have been a bearish trend with the possibility of retest the break out level.
+1 Reply
jangseohee justatrader
I always have the habit of jumping the gun, one of these days, i think my acc will get wipe up a 2nd time :-)
when i shorted it at 1.00076, it shoot up to 1.019xx, you can calculate my initial loss :-), and of course as an average loser i added another short at 1.01555, and it continue to go higher WTF
Back strengthly, price is going higher, but Histogram alone is not joining the previous high, i got suspicious, and the price became euphoric and i am compelled to short it as i was getting really greedy. Another decision to short is it reached my personal EMOTIONAL indicator. Since i suck in intraday trades, i will actually keep the position until the pain is too much and i just cut.
Hence its consider lucky for me, had it GAP 1000 pips above, i wouldnt stop visit TV for quite sometime.


snapshot
+2 Reply
You exited before the announcement? If you were short, you would have made some decent profits
Reply
jangseohee justatrader
well, as you can see the blue region that i expect the retracement to be in 45 degree conservative.
When i saw the news , it was already too late :-)
Reply
ForceFollower jangseohee
I enjoyed reading your story. So honest and sincere. I've been there too. :-)
Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
hehe, its good to laugh at myself when my acc turn - thousand from +thousand :-)
Reply
jangseohee justatrader
i remember my only paid TA class from a master who use to be a floor trader from Hong Kong Stock Exchange in the 80s.
Yes, he miss the big chunk but
I believe he made a hell lot from the other way by scalping with big lot
It actually retrace slightly higher than the 0.236 fibo level
Reply
jangseohee justatrader
i didnt pick it from real time, i just put a queue order
Reply
Hey guys! OANDA has just credited me back, so my balance is net zero! Wow!!! I'm so happy now! Life is wonderful again!
Thank you for your support, guys!
+6 Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
Bravo!!! Some cheer.

Alpari is bust.
+1 Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
My broker LMAX just issued a business as usual release. Was a bit worried on my capital given the circumstances!!! Phew.
+3 Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
Congrates! so no loss at all?
Reply
ForceFollower jangseohee
Of course I lost a lot. But at least I don't have to credit my account, so I wouldn't owe them anything.
+1 Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
I am relief to learn that :-), so OANDA is reputable!
Reply
ForceFollower jangseohee
I think OANDA is financially robust and is probably going to come out if it stronger than before, accepting traders fleeing those weaker broker houses.
Reply
jangseohee ForceFollower
once in a lifetime business strategy!
Reply
Newbie3YrTrader ForceFollower
Is it in Black & White that OANDA client need to repay their debit balance? As i saw news on FXCM like " when the client have a loss more than their capital , it pass to us ". How to know which broker are having which law .... ( i dont want to lose more than my invested capital )
Reply
ForceFollower Newbie3YrTrader
Probably you'd have to check every one's credit policy.
+2 Reply
forexfox ForceFollower
congratulation :)
+3 Reply
the surprise attach by central bank happened just almost exactly one month ago, want to make a guess which pair and i will show you the chart :-)
Reply
It was in December when EURCHF spiked down below 1.20 I think.. is that what you are referring to?
+2 Reply
you can't find this chart in TV anymore (as the name has changed), so it is gonna be extremely precious to me :-)
so what did Russian Central Bank do on 14/15 Dec 2014? And what happen to this pair?
Of course even a kid wont want to trade Rubbers, so the affected are only few unknowns
Every overbought signals sell?
+1 Reply
the USDRUB pair was in outer space price of 75, if i remember correctly and then Putin decided to stab USD
Reply
https://www.tradingview.com/v/o27gHYHQ/?utm_source=notification_email&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=notification_publish
+1 Reply
Aynone have source of Which Currency are Pegged to Which? Thanks alot
+1 Reply
justatrader PRO Newbie3YrTrader
Hahaha.. smart question buddy!! Well, not many left now, as far as majors are concerned. USDRUB broke the peg or band last year. CHF this week. From Europe, you have the Danish Krone. http://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/bloomberg/denmark-rejects-speculation-it-will-quit-euro-peg-after-snb-move/41221290 Spreads are usually high regardless of which broker you choose, so if you want to trade, you should be very cautious. Compared to CHF liquidity, DKK will be horrible.
+2 Reply
Some people expeted a return: https://www.facebook.com/206341572799059/photos/a.718878428212035.1073741828.206341572799059/788522591247618/?type=1&relevant_count=1
Reply
Force... What was your account leverage on Oanda if I may ask?
Reply
ForceFollower justatrader
50:1. My usual level. How about you?
Reply
justatrader PRO ForceFollower
Same.. But now seriously considering to get it down to 20.. Would leave me with just currency trading then. (I scalp indices intraday, which require 50 at my current standing). Sent you a PM.
Reply
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Polska
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
Indonesia
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out