Weekly closing price: 0.9800
Weekly opening price: 0.9796
Weekly view: After a rather aggressive move north two weeks ago, the Swissy found renewed selling interest last week just ahead of supply seen at 1.0092-0.9928. Despite this, there is still a good chance that the pair could extend above last week’s high to connect with this supply area. Failing this, a bout of selling in this market could bring prices back down to 0.9508: a which intersects with a support extended from the low 0.8703.
Daily view: Turning our attention to the daily candles, the at 0.9819-0.9784 remains intact, despite last week’s selling. A rally from this zone could prompt buyers to tag the seen at 0.9956-0.9921 (glued to the underside of the aforementioned weekly supply). Conversely, a violation of the current would likely stimulate a decline down towards the drawn from 0.9648-0.9708.
H4 view: Despite US labor conditions reporting a disappointing month, the pair traded flat going into the day’s close. A knee-jerk reaction to the report, however, forced prices to break through the H4 support 0.9762, but, as you can see, lost ground was quickly recovered back up to the 0.98 region.
Direction for the week: Personally we believe the Swissy has a little more gas in the tank yet, and will see a rally up to the aforementioned daily .
Direction for today: Should price manage to find a foothold above 0.98, we feel prices may stretch up to at least 0.9841: a H4 Quasimodo . However, do keep in mind that both the US and Canada are on vacation today, so movement could potentially be sluggish.
Our suggestions: The only area that really jumps out to us this morning is 0.99. Now, don’t get us wrong, the H4 Quasimodo at 0.9841 could hold prices lower, but 0.99 is, by far, still the more attractive zone. Here’s why:
1. Sits thirty pips below the underside of weekly supply at 1.0092-0.9928.
2. Merges with a H4 resistance taken from the high 0.9841.
3. Boasts a H4 88.6% Fib resistance at 0.9901.
Therefore, as long as one is comfortable placing there stops above the high 0.9950, a pending sell order could be placed at 0.9899.