Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw the USD/JPY pair advance to a fresh high of 118.968 as price continued to rally. This move consequently spiked above a major weekly supply area coming in at 117.931-116.799. Was this spike a fakeout to gather liquidity for lower prices, or a continuation move for a rally higher? Hopefully the lower timeframes can help.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price has reacted nicely off of a daily supply area coming in at 119.820-118.700. With this being the case, for the current weekly spike to be a fakeout, follow-through selling would need to be seen from here, preferably closing below a daily decision-point demand area coming in at 115.297-116.095. On the other hand, if price breaks above and consumes the daily supply area, we know with a high probability that prices will continue higher.
4hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that we were very tempted to buy at market off of 118. However, we resisted the temptation and chose to wait for confirmation on the lower timeframes which was not seen. Following that, price broke below 118 late on Thursday, and respected this level as resistance throughout Friday’s trading sessions.
Assuming that the sellers can hold out below 118, we see very little stopping price from declining in value down to at least 117, or even the 4hr ignored Quasimodo resistance level seen at 116.814. In our opinion, this move would still not be enough to conclude a fakeout happened on the weekly timeframe, and as such it would be around the 116.814 area (116.917) that buyers could come back into the market. In our humble opinion, setting a pending buy order here would be too risky; lower-timeframe confirmation would be needed as price could easily continue down towards 116.095, the upper limit of the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area.
Buy/sell levels:
• Buy orders: 116.917 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms this level).
• Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that price has reacted nicely off of a daily supply area coming in at 119.820-118.700. With this being the case, for the current weekly spike to be a fakeout, follow-through selling would need to be seen from here, preferably closing below a daily decision-point demand area coming in at 115.297-116.095. On the other hand, if price breaks above and consumes the daily supply area, we know with a high probability that prices will continue higher.
4hr Timeframe: It was mentioned in the previous analysis that we were very tempted to buy at market off of 118. However, we resisted the temptation and chose to wait for confirmation on the lower timeframes which was not seen. Following that, price broke below 118 late on Thursday, and respected this level as resistance throughout Friday’s trading sessions.
Assuming that the sellers can hold out below 118, we see very little stopping price from declining in value down to at least 117, or even the 4hr ignored Quasimodo resistance level seen at 116.814. In our opinion, this move would still not be enough to conclude a fakeout happened on the weekly timeframe, and as such it would be around the 116.814 area (116.917) that buyers could come back into the market. In our humble opinion, setting a pending buy order here would be too risky; lower-timeframe confirmation would be needed as price could easily continue down towards 116.095, the upper limit of the aforementioned daily decision-point demand area.
Buy/sell levels:
• Buy orders: 116.917 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: Dependent on how one confirms this level).
• Sell orders: N/A (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
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