ICmarkets

USD/JPY Weekly technical outlook and review.

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
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Weekly TF.

Buyers and sellers are still battling it out around the weekly S/R flip level at 101.206, at this point in time though; the sellers seem to be winning. Could this be an early sign we are going to break lower? If it is, price could very well trade down to weekly demand area at 96.554-98.585 as there is very little in the way of trouble demand stopping it.

Daily TF.

For the past two months or so most of the trading action has taken part within a range. Daily resistance is seen above at 102.713 and daily demand below at 100.747-100.967. If we see a positive close below the aforementioned daily demand area, this could very well be an early sign that price is going to drop to at least the daily demand area below at 99.562-100.247.

If the above does happen, what would this look like on the weekly timeframe? A good bullish reaction being seen at daily demand (99.562-100.247) could effectively help facilitate a fakeout below the weekly S/R flip level. This would cause a lot of upset and confusion for most traders attempting to go long around the daily demand area at 100.747-100.967, and more importantly this would give pro money bucket loads of liquidity to move prices higher.

4hr TF.

It was reported in the last analysis that price was still likely going to continue declining once we hit the 4hr D/S flip area at 101.400-101.465, and it did just that. However, we were expecting a nice bullish reaction off of the 101.227 area, and as we can all see the sellers slammed this level harder than we expected!

A reaction was seen around the 101.107 area and price then rallied back up to the 4hr D.S flip area (levels above), where the sellers then took control.

Taking into consideration our current location on the higher timeframes (see above), we could still see some bullish price action even if a break of the higher-timeframe demand/support areas is expected soon. The 101.107 area is clearly a proven area, nonetheless just below this is a round number 101.000 where active buyers are most likely waiting. So with this in mind, imagine for a moment how many traders will be going long around the 101.107 area, now imagine if you were the well-funded traders that control the market, you would clearly want these stops as it is liquidity to you! Pro money will very likely push south early this week spiking the aforementioned low, and the round number (level above), thus collecting the buyers’ stops (sell orders) and breakout sellers’ orders and using these orders to buy into! So, if prices get this low, do expect a nice reaction to be seen.

Pending/P.A confirmation orders:

• Pending buy orders (Green line) are seen just above the round number 101.000 at 101.020. The reason for setting a pending buy order here is because we are currently trading around a weekly support level (101.206). We would not normally set a pending order around psychological levels such as these, but since we are in a great higher-timeframe location it is worth the risk.
• The pending buy order (Green line) set just above the 101.227 area at 101.249 has been stopped out.
• No P.A confirmation buy orders (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.


• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below supply (103.294-102.983) at 102.953. A pending sell order was set here due to this being an area where likely unfilled sell orders are.
• The pending sell order (Green line) set just below a decision-point level (resistance, 101.754) at 101.696 has been closed after our final take-profit level set below at 101.227 was hit.
• P.A confirmation sell orders (Red line) are seen just below supply (102-191-102.104) at 102.074. A P.A confirmation sell order was used here purely for the simple fact we are trading around a higher-timeframe weekly support level at 101.206 meaning we may see a small reaction, but nothing to write home about, hence the need for confirmation!





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