motleifaul
Short

To much is to much.

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
97 11 1
The price fell to much below the pitchfork . That means to me that a larger downmove is beginning.
Taret may be the cloud.
DJA ATM
2 years ago
How far down, breaking the 100 level? Any idea when to enter a long position !
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motleifaul
2 years ago
As I said: Target may be the cloud. No idea for long at moment.
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ForceFollower
2 years ago
Be cautious with this short here. I've been in this kind of situation before. If it doesn't make a new low, beware - it will go up, probably as far as 103.000. And look to the left - there are two powerful swing lows (one of them in Dec 2013) that protect it from going down to 100.000. At some point the 100 level will act as a magnet, but I don't think it is going to happen so soon, by sliding down from this swing. So if it doesn't fall below 101.980, it will probably go up, fighting your position.

You probably wonder why this situation is fishy for me. It is because of the pervasive long-term up trend and the following clear down trend. There's some kind of contradiction between the two and it's not so easy to handle this kind of environment. At least for me.
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motleifaul ForceFollower
2 years ago
Thank you very much for this info.
I forgot to draw in another line, here in yellow:
snapshot

In addition to the brown median line and the dark blue Gann line they all are broken supports. The yellow line even looks like the neckline of a Head-and-shoulder. But I won't bet on this as S-H-S formations are not my speciality.
Nevertheless all this gives me some hope that the direction is down at moment.
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motleifaul motleifaul
2 years ago
The median line of the pitchfork and the dark blue Gann line are retestet which increases the probability.
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ForceFollower motleifaul
2 years ago
Yes, it is down indeed. And your yellow line is really telling a lot: a support that became resistance. So perhaps you'll see new lows.
Anyway, here is how I see it:
snapshot
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motleifaul ForceFollower
2 years ago
This looks good as well. Good study.
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ForceFollower motleifaul
2 years ago
Thanks. So what's worth keeping an eye on is that green level of confluencing support.
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DJA ATM
2 years ago
Thank you for your feedback
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motleifaul
2 years ago
The next Gann line is reached. I am taking the profit here.
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motleifaul motleifaul
2 years ago
Well, not only the next Gann line but also the cloud. Usually I don't put so much value to the cloud. But in the case of USDJPY it seems to play some role. Very often it changes the direction in the cloud as it's also defined by the theory. But I never realized that it really worked well with other currencies, except USDJPY. I will watch it now. Such a downmove comes seldom allone the more that many expected the other direction due to the resistance here and the uptrend prevailing. A wise man recently said the wise word that a trend can change. May be this will happen now. But it's to early for my to trade on this assumption yet. I think we shall leave the cloud to the downside first and undercut the September high.
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