Since the beginning of 2015, this pair has been trading in a key zone, which is .618 Fib level and also the previous high. The price pitchfork
in the chart is constructed with a suspended P2 pivot
using the action-reaction principle. As seen, the recent activity has shown weakness against UMLH, which indicates a retest of the median line
. The fact that price has rejected to go below the .618 Fib level is a sign of undecidedness of the market, so one needs further evidence to take sides. What this bird's-eye view can provide us more comes from the Stoch
, in which we had a bearish
divergence when the most recent high occurred in July 2015. The Stoch pitchfork
is Andrew's traditional pitchfork
, in which the indicator is rejected by UWL-2 (this is how I prefer to write upper warning lines in short), after which it went all the way down to the previous support at around 70%, which also confluences with LWL-2. This indicates the imminence of the decision point. It would therefore be natural to assume that the final judgement on this pair will be given at latest in April 2016.
Although this analysis could not provide the necessary evidence to take a side, lower time-frames may give sufficient information. If both weakly and daily analyses are ambiguous like this one, preaching for wait-and-see, I will wait for the clearance of the picture.