USD/JPY: Bat within the range or AB=CD out of the range.
This pair has been rangebound for a while now.
2 scenario's are drawn in the chart.
Scenario 1 (most likely imo):
A possible double top could send us down from the upper S/R zone towards completion of a possible bullish bat in the lower S/R zone. I will try to base trades on the double top (after confirmation) as well as on the bat (buy limit orders).
In case the duoble top does it's job sending the pair down i will leave part of that trade open until I see a clear reversal from the bat, so as to hedge part of the bat trade risk in case we go further down, beyond the bat's SL and towards the lower trendline out of the current range.
Scenario 2:
In case the double top fails and the pair goes up and above the range I will enter a long trade upon confirmation of the breakout with targets at a possible AB=CD pattern completion higher up. I will also set sell limit orders to trade the bearish AB=CD pattern with entry below the 1/1 AB=CD but above the 224 ext. of BC to get decent R/R. If it reverses sooner I will pass on that one. I will leave part of the long range breakout trade open until I see a clear reversal at the AB=CD PRZ, so as to hedge part of the AB=CD trade's risk in case the target gets overshot and my SL hit.
Completion of either one of the two scenario's will invalidate the other one!
2 scenario's are drawn in the chart.
Scenario 1 (most likely imo):
A possible double top could send us down from the upper S/R zone towards completion of a possible bullish bat in the lower S/R zone. I will try to base trades on the double top (after confirmation) as well as on the bat (buy limit orders).
In case the duoble top does it's job sending the pair down i will leave part of that trade open until I see a clear reversal from the bat, so as to hedge part of the bat trade risk in case we go further down, beyond the bat's SL and towards the lower trendline out of the current range.
Scenario 2:
In case the double top fails and the pair goes up and above the range I will enter a long trade upon confirmation of the breakout with targets at a possible AB=CD pattern completion higher up. I will also set sell limit orders to trade the bearish AB=CD pattern with entry below the 1/1 AB=CD but above the 224 ext. of BC to get decent R/R. If it reverses sooner I will pass on that one. I will leave part of the long range breakout trade open until I see a clear reversal at the AB=CD PRZ, so as to hedge part of the AB=CD trade's risk in case the target gets overshot and my SL hit.
Completion of either one of the two scenario's will invalidate the other one!
Comment:
Regretfully I missed the move up, but I'm in the short trade now!
