traderWgun

Double top didn't hold, ending diagonal?

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
149 6 0
The double top idea ended in a loss. I now belive that the market is doing an ending diagonal
which should end above 104 before a correction down to the 101 and then higher.
dojitrader
2 years ago
Looks like your ED is still in play - just a little lower 4th.
I was wondering, since UsdJpy is, Usually, closely correlated to EurJpy ---
Do you have any thoughts on a count for the current difference in this comparison ?
How would you account for the nuance between the two ?
Reply
traderWgun dojitrader
2 years ago
Well the main thing to keep in mind is that the catalyst for this rally is JPY weakness, not eur or/and usd strength.

My count is a triple zigzag for wave 3 which should end near 144
snapshot
Reply
dojitrader
2 years ago
Lot's of food for thought !!!!!
I'll have to study the larger degree some more - I've checked out the weekly chart -
and I see the possibility for this being the corrective nature in your count and
not impulsive, although, that would make this one Hell of a C Wave, for sure ~~~~~~
Thanks for your thoughts.
*I don't suppose there is an easy explanation for your corrective count ?*
Or should I study first and then listen to your answer for better understanding ?
Reply
traderWgun dojitrader
2 years ago
The reason one would lable this as an triple zigzag is because it's more or less impossible to count this as an impulse.
Some ppl counted this like below, but then wave 3 would be the shortest which is breaking one of the basic EW rules.
snapshot


This wave most not be a C wave. It could be wave 5 in an impulse.
The opinions differ between EW schoolers, but the school of thought that i subscribe to says that
all wave with a bigger corrective wave can be of corrective nature, and the fact that we are correcting the
drop from the 2008 highs, this is a corrective wave in 5 wave to set up a big wave A,

snapshot


Other suggest this could be an irregular flat.
snapshot


There are many possible counts, it's hard to say which one is correct. EURJPY is one of the most difficult pairs if you ask me.
I will wait for the market to show it's hand before taking a positon in EURJPY.
Reply
traderWgun traderWgun
2 years ago
Note that wave Z could be over. The last swing (c) was in 5w but it could be w1 of 5 waves.
Also looks like the market is setting up a h&s...
snapshot


and put an evening star on the daily.



We need to take out 140.9 to confirm if a medium-term top is in place.
snapshot
Reply
dojitrader
2 years ago
Just when I thought I new a few things . . . enough to be dangerous I guess . . . there is so much more to study and learn !
Keeps thing interesting, doesn't it ? I had forgotten the 3rd wave rule and that does seem to put a huge wrench into the
possible counts. EurJpy is quite the puzzle to me with it's impulsive nature and yet . . . questions abound.
Thanks for your comprehensive answer. I appreciate all your helpful insight - greatly !!!
Reply
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