FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
607 17 20
I tried to update my previous USDJPY             post where we called the short but somehow that isn't working. So as a result of that I decided to show my top down analysis since I've to create a new post anyway;-). Due to the combination of structure by means of Elliott Wave and inter market analysis I came to the conclusion that the triangle projection on the daily time frame is the most likely.

(Those who are going to PM me with comments like I can't know this or that there are no professionals posting on tradingview, don't bother. I can't know this as nobody can, but please get back to me when you drop your insecure attitude because it is a waste of time and I'm not responding. To the so-called top analysts on TV (based on popularity and not track record), please focus on your own work and stop talking about others because several fools feel the need to continue what you guys started. Let's all just add positive input because in the end we all want to make some profit in the market and everyone has to decide for him or herself who he or she wants to listen to. Finding a good teacher is trade number 1 in your trading career, if you thrust your own work you are on your way, if you focus on others you probably have serious issues that have nothing to do with trading.)

That said; if you understand the market you are looking for the highest probability scenario which is this daily triangle according to my analysis. I can't go into too much detail here on trading view because that will confuse more than it clarifies since you have too look at many factors. (it will be covered on my website) Nevertheless you can all see my projection for a daily A-B-C correction which will most likely reach 85 for C before we see the major reversal. (Although we can consider wave A in blue major as well). But let's not get lost in a long term analysis just now and trade what we see, that's what I will do and my ego is not too big to adjust when necessary. Short term I see the following development.

4 hour:
snapshot

We called the short and I gave the targets on my facebook             business page: www. facebook             .com/wwwtimstuytscom

1 hour:
snapshot

On the 1 hour time frame I showed the leading contraction zones in my view (main zones are shown by means of the thicker red lines). What I mean by this is the following, if we are looking for a three wave down or a five wave down for that matter, I like to use these zones for reversal area's (end of wave 2 or B for example). It doesn't mean I buy or sell when price reaches one of these zones but it does mean that IF we see a reversal according to our trade plan out of such a zone it will increase our probability for a succesfull trade. For now I favor wave D lower and we should see at least 3 waves. Wait for a consolidation and sell the continuation is what I therefore will be looking for.

updates will follow and thanks for all the positive input as well! I will keep posting these kind of analyses for free and I encourage you all to do the same because in the end teaching is learning whether you call yourself professional, retailer, amateur or trader;-)

http://www.timstuyts.com

www. facebook             .com/wwwtimstuytscom
Comment: Price is respecting the previous contraction zones and we might make another corrective wave up. Nevertheless ideally we see another leg lower after that which should give us divergence. That way we can start looking for a buy of what I now consider a potential wave E.
snapshot
Comment: Due to the fact that potential wave C of lesser degree was very short compared to what I count to be wave 4, I think the chances of a Flat correction have improved for a test of 38.2% of the length of what I consider to be wave 3.
snapshot

Bigger picture; my view hasn't changed yet and for short term trading focus on the recent impulse. Let it settle preferably in a pronounced corrective pattern and look to buy the continuation. I like to wait for at least next week to consider adding another possible buy.
nICE!
+2 Reply
Really amazing to read your thoughts and comments. Thank you so much for share Tim!!!! Hope I will catch a second round in this pair :=)
+1 Reply
TimStuyts andreas1
Thanks for the support!
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Great work. I love your analysis :-)
+1 Reply
TimStuyts catrionaforex
Thanks for the support!
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Ok, so we are at the end of (A(3rd wave out of 5)) of (c)..meaning there will be a corrective pattern for (B) of (c) and we should sell the C of (c)...right? uh :)
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TimStuyts sketchmaster
I think we are in a triangle correction for wave 4 (ABCDE) I'm in the sell for wave D at the moment based on that sell signal I posted a few days ago. Once wave 5 lower is in place I believe wave A of larger degree is in place.
+1 Reply
ouuu, yes I see it now. Thanks for the quick answer. It was the short A-B and long C of (c) that got me confused...
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Nice chart. It looks similar to the one I marked up in MetaTrader. haha. Is your price target in the 100.500 support range?
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TimStuyts CharlesWoods
I've updated the chart, but I agree that might be a strong reversal zone. Let's see. Safe trades!
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Good stuff. Thanks for being such a great member of the trading community! This looks like you put a lot of hard work into this. Good for you. Hope you get all the pips you are looking for.
+1 Reply
TimStuyts Trillionschifer
Thanks for the support!
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Any updates on USD/JPY ... more precisely, if it goes above the 100 day EMA right now on the daily, what do you think is a possible scenario?

Thanks.
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TimStuyts alexanderbg91
I'll update. I don't use MA to be honest. So I can't help you with that, sorry.
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Ok, so the daily triangle idea is not valid, any more..(?)
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TimStuyts sketchmaster
The triangle shown by means of original post is very much valid and still the most likely outcome. However the triangle of lesser degree (for wave 4 in blue in the original post) I see as less likely and see a Flat correction as more reasonable to expect. When analyzing corrections it is important to keep an open mind because there are many possible corrective patterns. However due to the price action and the shape of wave A I expected a sideways correction. That means a triangle or a Flat correction and in some cases a corrective combination.
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TimStuyts sketchmaster
So that's why it is key to focus on the most recent impulse when trading USDJPY short term. That will keep you out of bad/losing trades.
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