USDJPY Buy Opportunity

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Spot 78.448
Enter @ 78.60(10 pips above weekly high)
Stop @77.80
Target @79.5 in two weeks.

USDJPY is consolidating in an asymmetric tangle(blue line) The triangle shows that a breakou is about to occur. Currently, Bollinger Bands (not pictured) show that there is currently low volatility .In addition, USDJPY is horizontally supported by 78.12 line (red) formed in Feb 2012, before BoJ announced its asset purchasing program.

Do not get fooled by the Stoch RSI , which states that USDJPY is over bought. First of all, this is a daily chart , and oscillators are bound to be more volatile. If you look at it on a Weekly Chart (considering the horizon of this graph), Stoch RSI is only 24, indicating that it is over sold.

Fundamentally I think this is a great opportunity to enter the JPYUSD . The past two months was very risk-on, as evidenced by bullish Aussie and Loonie. However, as seen in the graph, JPY strengthened in June and consolidated in July. Many have noted that BoJ easing has not been very effective. In order to achieve 1% inflation target, I think BoJ will try harder, especially considering that USDJPY is trading at year-beginning level when they announced easing.

As for risk, we have had a decent two month run. I am worried that the market may be due to another small correction very soon. This risk-off enviroment may not be USDJPY bullish . But according to my SPY chart analysis, the market should be bullish , since it just finished a 2 month correction from April to May. If the market is continually risk-on, then this is good for the JPY.

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