USDJPY Daily Outlook - Short Opportunity

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
Greetings Everyone,

Looking at the price action and recent daily trade action for USDJPY             it appears we may have a much stronger reason for a Short opportunity. Since mid-october USDJPY             is on the verge of completing what appears to be a very steep ABCD Structure, the completion of this pattern lines up with the remaining S/R Channel that this pair was trading in during the first half of 2015.

Trade Opportunity:
Sell Limit 123.50 - or Manual Entry based on preference
Stop Loss 125.50
Take Profit 120.20

Additional Comments:
  • Look for not only Bearish Price Action around this level, but also a Bearish Daily Candle close to help support this trade.
  • Trade would be invalidated if daily candle closes above the blue resistance line drawn.
  • Keep in mind that overall USDJPY             is still technically in an uptrend so make sure to use the previous two points to your advantage.
  • This is the only USD pair I'm seeing this kind of opportunity on so it is likely not to be related to the US Dollar             like the NFP moves of Friday were.

Please do your own analysis before entering a trade and feel free to comment, "like" or follow. If there is a pair or time frame you would like me to take a look at, I would be more than happy to, just send me a PM with the details.
Comment: Recommend Closing Trade Manually with approximately 60 pips of profit or setting stop loss to break even at 123.50 and look for lower lows. 4 hour structure is beginning to look more and more like bullish consolidation, like a flag. I'm not placing a buy position, I would prefer to buy closer to the 120-121 level if I do. Any questions/comments feel free to ask.
Comment: I'll look for bearish price action along the trend line again for a possible re-entry short back near 123.60. As per the initial trade opportunity, this short setup is invalidated should the market put a daily close above the trend line, let's call it 124.00 or higher.
The only way i could see this happening is if next month jpy stops QE. Dollar just made a new high, its possible we could see some weakness in the dollar this week as a minor correction and I would take that opportunity to go long if that does happen...
Synapse ddp922
I appreciate the input, but I don't speculate what the financial powerhouses of the world are going to do to influence my trading. I trade my charts, we're approaching a key S/R line that has been tested several times this year. Everything was included in the above post, including trade invalidation, what to look for and buying opportunities. Right now for this upcoming week, I see more reasons to short USDJPY than I do to long unless as you said there is a pull back. Buying now would be a very poor decision in my opinion.
+1 Reply
Hello boys, I am long for a new high with stops already in profit and will Not be taking profit in your target area. Be sure to look for rejection candles on the 4 hourly before you start loading in the shorts.
Good! Same idea with me.
Having same idea since long time, as you have written in your status, patience makes up for the majority of trading.

my view :)
today penetrated 122 level due to NFP. this strong NFP >>> Fed rate hike in December, so most probably 125 level will be hit in dec
Synapse OdoFx
Very possible, 125 in December is a long way off, this trade could execute and we still hit 125 then. Keep an eye on the price action and daily candles to support a short off of this resistance line. A daily close above totally negates the trade.
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