Johanes

JLS Prime Liquidity and Price Stability Fluctuation Trend

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
The global prime liquidity is managed in USD, JPY, CHF and the EUR, where by the EUR is the sister currency of the CHF after the establishment of the EMS by the EMS Treasty. They represent the world's largest economies. The global wealth is mainly managed in USD, JPY, CHF and EUR, and the EUR is not "anti US dollar" but co-currency for western region. The presence of China as one of the world's largest economies result the inclusion on the CNY into JPY (JPY-CNY by the IMF's monetary structure), at such the current world's largest liquidity is managed in USD, JPY-CNY, CHF-EUR. Accordingly, the FX price structure of the international monetary system stands for USD price stability to developed, under-developed and developing currencies, JPY-CNY price stability to developed, under-developed and developing currencies, CHF-EUR price stability to developed, under-developed and developing currencies.

Therefore, the prime target zones or currency bands as the basis of measurement is USDJPY , USDCHF and EURUSD . Accordingly, the target zones for interest rate differential-based structure of currency pairs USDCAD , NZDUSD , AUDUSD , GBPUSD , CADJPY , NZDJPY , AUDJPY , GBPJPY , CADCHF , NZDCHF , AUDCHF , GBPCHF , EURCAD , EURNZD , EURAUD and EURGBP as well as for EURJPY and EURCHF is "interior the combination of target zones of USDJPY , EURUSD and USDCHF", the so called "global price stability" for global finance stability and global economy stability, and or oftenly called "global equilibrium" by central banks.

Thus, should the USDJPY to move from lower band to upper band then will be followed by CADJPY , NZDJPY , AUDJPY and GBPJPY to upward by their relative prices. Similarly, should the USDCHF to move from lower band to upper band then will be followed by CADCHF , NZDCHF , AUDCHF and GBPCHF to upward by their relative prices, and should the EURUSD to move from upper band to lower band then will be followed by EURCAD , EURNZD , EURAUD , EURGBP to downward by their relative prices.

Measuring the lower and the upper bands could be simple by using time series interest rate differential-based currency bands, however difficulties arise for measuring the price fluctuation or relative price interior their bands. The interest rate differential-based price fluctuation or relative price measurement interior their bands are assessed by time series relative price performance and oftenly influenced by macro and micro news. Relative price fluctuation may seen for 20-150 PIPs due to impact of macro and micro-news by the news' volatility (read Fed Tech Papers on Macro and Micro News and their Volatilities). Excessive volatility however stabilized shortly but the impact of excessive relative price volatily could the very risky to "stop loss" trading positions. Therefore, carry traders and momentum traders are mainly to target the medium and short term price stability on their trades and largest banks target them for their FX-linked notes or bonds by offering capital protected funds.
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