The higher-timeframe picture resembles the following:
• Weekly TF: Buyers and sellers are now firmly trading around a beautiful-looking weekly supply area at 105.432-104.065. We will definitely begin looking for shorts now and any long positions will need confirmation as we could see some very serious selling take place either this week or the next.
• Daily TF: A break above the daily supply area at 104.104-103.802 has been seen. This likely indicates a lot of the traders who attempted to fade this area with their stop-loss order too close have been stopped out. The path north appears to be relatively clear up to the daily supply area at 104.831-104.505. However before this area gets hit, we must be prepared for a drop down to at least the daily R/S flip level at 102.713 since pro money may not have enough liquidity to push prices higher from here.
Price still remains confined between the 4hr high/resistance at 102.264, and a minor 4hr at 103.738, with the buyers and sellers currently being seen battling it out around the lower limits of this 4hr range. The shows there is room for price to move above to hit daily supply at 104.831-104.505, while on the we have just hit the lower base of weekly supply at 105.432-104.065.
A break above the 4hr at 104.264 is what we’re looking to see, this could trigger buying interest up to around the 4hr supply area at 104.831-104.591 (a pending sell order is set just below at 104.568) which is where a likely first-time reaction will be seen. However, no matter how much we want price to break above this 4hr , and a push up to the aforementioned 4hr supply area, we cannot ignore the fact we are trading around a heavy weekly supply area (levels above), even if there is room to move above on the – see above (most already know the higher timeframes usually overrule the lower). So, with this being said, a break below 4hr minor at 103.738 would likely imply selling interest from the weekly supply area (mentioned above) has already begun, and we see very little in their way down to at least the round number 103 (a P.A confirmation buy order is set just above at 103.037).
Pending/P.A confirmation levels:
• No pending buy orders (Green line) are seen in the current market environment.
• P.A confirmation buy levels (Red line) are seen just above the round number 103 at 103.037. The reason we have not set a pending buy order here is simply because pro money could either perform a deep test of this level, or ignore this level altogether.
• Pending sell orders (Green line) are seen just below 4hr supply (104.831-104.591) at 104.568. The reasoning behind setting a pending sell order here is simply because this area remains untouched, and is located within both weekly supply at 105.432-104.065 and also daily supply at 104.831-104.505 as well.
• No P.A confirmation sell levels (Red line) are seen in the current market environment.
• Areas to watch for buy orders: P.O: No pending buy orders are seen in the current market environment. . P.A.C: 103.037 (SL: Dependent on price action after the level has been confirmed TP: Dependent on approaching price action after the level has been confirmed).
• Areas to watch for sell orders: P.O: 104.568 (SL: 104.873 TP: Dependent on how price approaches). P.A.C: No P.A confirmation sell levels are seen in the current market environment.