Trade with care!
Have a nice weekend...
We can see too in daily chart showed "Triple Bottom" based on "Strong Support" in weekly chart
(1) The USDJPY market made a double bottom.
(2) Then price kept making sub-minor higher highs and pierced through the 20 moving average, and both the 50 exponential moving average and upper portion of the Bollinger Bands and did not reject abruptly like no one wants it anymore, but it stayed there for several bars (about 4 or 5). You can observate that the price surged up like somebody means it: hard and rough.
(3) When the prices started to fall down, the prices stalled at horizontal support that goes back to August 3, 2016. This area or range is also close to where the 20 moving average was (the middle of the Bollinger Band).
(4) At the middle of the Bollinger Band prices started to show green bars again (subtle evidence of life), then a strong green bar, letting you know that the buyers are here.
(5) Other further observations: It looked like it could turn into a triangle since prices did not make fresh new lows, but stalled at support. This is why he speculated in drawing the that trendline there on the chart connecting the lows in advance.
(6) Using Discretion: He had no idea that it would hold and become a potential higher low. He took a wild guess that was based on what he had seen before. He was unsure at first, and this is why he used the "chop" indicator on the bottom to help his eyes. The "chop" indicator (available in Tradingview) is bullish. So, he used this to gain confidence in his speculation that maybe, just maybe, USDJPY will continue to go up and break through the downward sloping trendline. It could have gone the other way, and if it did, he wold have no explanation for it, but he will have a protective stop loss just in case that this trade set-up dd not work for him; take the loss, then and move on to find another trade to show up.
(7) Stop loss Rationale: His stop loss, according to his chart, was placed under the zone or area where prices seemed to be rejecting off of support.
(8) Target Rationale: He has places targets above based on horizontal resistance or barriers he thinks that price will have a difficult time going through; therefore, based on the chart, he has three different targets to partially get out.
jorv2074, here is the truth about technical analysis and people who promote it and people who blindly follow it only.
When you are a soldier on the battlefield, there is also a lot of overhead resistance, but you must fight; but, which way do you go, up or down?
(a) He could have given you a picture of the same chart with an arrow pointing down just as with one pointing up.
(b) It is his wild guess. He really doesn't know in reality if the trendline will break or if sellers will step in at the top of the triangle and sell the USDJPY pair back down to the bottom of the triangle. WHY WILL IT WORK OUT NOW is your question, and he cannot give you a valid answer, except a chart (or, do what others do, sell you gimmicks and courses about their professional gambling strategy.). He is not selling us anything, but, if he is only looking at a chart, then, he is a professional gambler, like in horse betting. That is what they do. Gamble with a chart and has a point they will get out with a loss.
(c) This is the problem with people who only use charts and look at nothing else. They can only make wild guesses and do not have investment foresight; neither do they care about it nor has it ever occurred to them that they are really just gambling away. Also, they are too lazy to get that foresight. They can only show you a doodle on a computer screen, with a pattern and no explanation.
My analysis deepend on weekly chart, personally so far UJ can't break strong support on weekly so I think it will go up.. but it deepends to you that's just my personal view ;). Here the weekly chart --> http://prntscr.com/cpifp5
Principle/Rule #9: You need to have a support or resistance from a WEEKLY or MONTHLY chart to base a trade off the daily and 4 hour chart. As addinmajid said, "My analysis deepend on weekly chart."
Principle #10: If you watch a chart and the prices "can't break strong support on weekly," then you should believe that it will go up. If it breaks support, then make sure that there is a stop loss order in place, waiting to get you out.
So, jorv2074, use higher time frames to find lower time frame bounces. and make sure those lower timeframe bounces have higher highs and higher lows.
Further Observation: It doesn't matter if the "chop" indicator is red or any color on the weekly. As long as it changes color on the daily, then that is the strategy.
And guess what, jorv2074, you naturally have a catalyst in mind. It is the non-farm payrolls. You believe somehow that it might be good. If it is really good, then, yes! It will break and that will be a confirmation that the FED will raise rates in December. So, there are so many implication that you can use to help you in trading technical analysis.
I actually will use chop in my charts as well, but only if I am tired or stuck and do not know what else to think; or, to give me that extra confidence as a last resort as to what I see.