Our take on the recent movement of the USD/JPY pair...

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
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Weekly timeframe perspective: At the time of writing, price is seen teasing a minor weekly decision-point demand area coming in at 118.22-119.40. If price can hold out above this zone, we then feel there’s a very good chance that the buyers will attack the weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 122.18.

Daily timeframe perspective: From this timeframe, we can see that price has once again stabbed below the small daily demand area at 119.37-119.81 (sits just above the aforementioned minor weekly decision-point demand area). We believe this has dramatically increased the chances of a move being seen down to another very small daily demand area at 118.61-119.05, which, if you look back to the weekly chart, you’ll notice is located relatively deep within the minor weekly decision-point demand area (see above).

4hr timeframe perspective: Recent developments on the 4hr timeframe show price did attempt to trade above 119.74 to 120.00 yesterday, and, as you can see, almost made it, falling short by only 3 or so pips before eventually selling off back down to the 4hr demand area coming in at 119.06-119.27 (located just below the daily demand area at 119.37-119.81).

Given all of the points made above, we remain a little concerned that the buyers could not muster the strength to get above 120.00, could this be a further sign of weakening longs here? We believe it could well be. With that said, we have no interest in buying this market at the aforementioned 4hr demand zone until we see a clean close above 120.00. On the other hand, should a break below the current 4hr demand be seen, this will likely attract further downside towards a 4hr demand visible at 118.67-118.94 (located within daily demand at 118.61-119.05). It would be here that we’d begin watching the lower timeframes for buying confirmation around the 118.97 mark, since this area is located not only within daily demand, but also weekly as well (see above).

Current buy/sell orders:

• Buy orders: 118.97 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 118.63).

• Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).

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