Here is risk-on momentum fading since November. The outperformance in the S&P compared to the Yen has come to a "meeting of the minds" from April '21, in my perspective. Here is the most basic scenario I can think of, If Fed is dovish with only 25bips then we could see the risk-off Yen trade fade/flatten. If we see the a hawkish 50-75bps move then the Yen trade could be good to go for a fresh rally. If the Fed is not hiking rates then the SPX will rip 100-200 points and the Yen trade would be stagnant and bearish.