i got to analyze the smaller time frame such as the weekly, daily and intraday to be able to determine two points:
1. i need to know if the upward movement was complete, because this is 5th an ending movement and on the closing chart it has only made 3 movement i need another 2 to complete a reversal 5th.
2. i need to make sure that the current movement is not a correction.
for my trading,
i will keep in mind the downward movement, and i will not try to analyze any other movement on the smaller time frame, even if i lost this trade am only risking what i can risk (1-2% per trade) because it is always better to keep in mind one major scenario and build your smaller scenarios based on it.
even it took time, it has to take time because this is a monthly time frame.
and for you to be ready for any scenarios.
always plan your trade with specific points of entry, exit and profit taking.
and always try to put 1 major scenario.
and for this major scenario start applying two minor major scenarios.
and then another 2 and so on.
again, after all of your analysis, planning and the mental strength you put in the trade you might get it wrong - at the start of any analysis/ trading plan i always assume a 50/50 chance never 100.
this helps me in:
1. placing my stops and not changing it what so ever.
2. keep my mental strength at its place in order not for me to get emotional in the next trade.
i treat all trades the same. no matter how iam confident always analyze your losses, and then analyze your profits.
i will analyze the small structure in the next chart.