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USD/JPY moves in tight range for last 1 yr, bearish in long run

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar/Japanese Yen
195 0 7
USD/JPY's uptrend is contracted into narrow range; bearish sensation is piling up although interim upswings cannot be disregarded.

After testing and rejecting the strong resistance at 123.70, we came up with this bearish stance after long lasting considerable struggle at this juncture.

One can see grey shaded areas with massive volume build ups that is spiking up, same is the case on weekly charts as well.

The divergence is also observed to the current narrow range and previous uptrend from the leading oscillators.

We can now see non-directional trend like previous sideway trend that lasted for almost 1 month.

With RSI evidencing divergence to the previous uptrend on both monthly and weekly charts which is also an alarm to the bulls.

We see the strong supports at 122.50, 121.99 (23.6% fibo levels) were failed to hold these levels, more price decline is a certain event in long run as it's been consistently spiking up all the way from 118.063 from last 2 and half months or so (we think that was mainly due to Fed's effect).

We observed from last one year the trend went in tight range between 123.850- 115.560 which we perceive this as non-directional but slightly downward bias since some bearish signals for long term along with short term upswings are popping up.

This has always been extremely tough & risky to have opened position in such non-directional trend.

Considering the above technical reasoning, we like to remain in safe zone and recommend buying a option strips using At-The-Money option contracts with same expiries, thereby, one can benefit from certain returns even if the pair breaks out on either side in a long run.
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