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USD/JPY swing trading ideas

FX:USDJPY   U.S. Dollar / Japanese Yen
216 0 6
We are bearish on this pair in long run, upswings in short term should not go beyond 118.854.

It has broken below a strong support at 118.854 decisively with massive volumes to build new bearish environment. In worst case scenario if it breaches these levels then 121.517 is the next certain juncture to pull back southwards.

Currently it has tested supports at 117.200 regions to show some minor bounces but on a long-term perspective, the non-directional trend is now slightly sensing weakness that has lasted for almost 1 year (see grey shaded area on price chart that has remained in the range of 116.082 - 125.856).

While USD/JPY's uptrend is contracted into narrow range, other oscillating indicators shown a clear convergence to the previous puzzling swings in sideway trend; for now bearish sensation is piling up although interim upswings cannot be disregarded.

Most importantly, weekly prices have slipped below 21DMA and broken major supports zones (121.517 & 118.854) to signify the bearish trend to prevail further.

Massive volumes build up on every price decline and volumes shrinkage on attempt of bouncing (see grey shaded areas), this would mean that upswings are rejected by bulls and bears are active to grab the downswings sentiments.

Most likely and alternative scenarios: Immediate strong resistance is seen at 118.854 but more interest is observed to remain below support at 115.715.
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